Introduction: A Massive Imbalance That Won't Budge
The announcement that the U.S. trade deficit dipped to $901.5 billion in 2025 has been met with muted celebration by establishment economists [1]. A tepid 0.2 percent decrease from the previous year is being framed as progress, but this masks a stubborn, dangerous structural problem that tariffs alone cannot cure [2].

You’ve heard of Optimist International, the global service organization. If there were a “Pessimist International,” MS NOW military analyst Barry McCaffrey could be kicked out of it — for being too darn negative.