The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has sustained its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting that it will be below-average, according to the announcement Thursday from the agency in its final outlook for the 2026 hurricane season.
A very strong El Niño climate pattern is expected by government forecasters, and it's anticipated that it will maintain through the fall. As a result, this will generate conditions in the atmosphere that will cause tropical development to be suppressed in the Atlantic Ocean. (RELATED: El Niño, Likely To Achieve 'Super' Status By End Of 2026, Continues To Strengthen Towards Record-Breaking Territory)
NOAA anticipates 7-13 named storms and 2-6 hurricanes, which includes 0-2 major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are stronger storms scaled at Category 3 or higher. The numbers from NOAA include Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha, with those systems developing earlier this summer in the Gulf of America.
The numbers are slightly reduced when compared to the original forecast from NOAA that was released in late May. Then, the agency was calling for a below-average hurricane season with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes and 1-3 major hurricanes.
🌀BREAKING NEWS: NOAA slightly reduced its Atlantic hurricane season forecast, saying that a very strong El Niño will likely lead to a below-average season. But forecasters are warning that even in seasons with fewer storms, it only takes one to create major impacts. Details:… pic.twitter.com/XsleOXv5MI
— FOX Weather (@foxweather) August 6, 2026
The average hurricane season in the Atlantic generates 14 named storms, which includes 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
NOAA also increased the possibility for a below-average hurricane season from 55% to 75%.
"If the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends up being below-normal, it would mark only the second season in the last decade without above-normal activity," stated NOAA.
Generally, hurricane activity in the Atlantic is suppressed by El Niño courtesy of very strong winds that are high in the atmosphere.
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