As cultural liberalism conquered America over the past few decades, from same-sex marriage to cannabis legalization, one issue remained stagnant in public attitudes: abortion.
With the fall of constitutional abortion rights four years ago, followed by a multi-election wave of voter-approved protections for abortion in red states all the way through Tuesday's midterms, a new issue has emerged that threatens to break the blue wave.
In a rebuke to the Democratic establishment reminiscent of California voters banning same-sex marriage in the 2008 election, led by racial minorities driven to vote for Barack Obama for president, Washington state and Colorado voters appear to have banned males in girls' sports amid the Republican bloodbath nationwide, though votes are still being counted.
Similar measures conclusively passed not only in deep-red Nebraska, where voters 2-1 constitutionalized a statutory ban encompassing public and private K-12 schools and colleges, but also purple Arizona, whose voters rebuked its Democratic governor and U.S. senators 59-41% by expanding an existing ban on males in girls' sports.
Arizona's Proposition 318 requires private and public schools and athletic associations to "prevent males from joining female teams," prohibits them from letting the sexes use each other's "private spaces," judges sex "as recorded at birth on an original birth certificate," and authorizes athletes' lawsuits against scofflaw schools and associations.
— Paula Scanlan (@PaulaYScanlan) November 4, 2026
When she spoke publicly against male teammate Lia Thomas's presence on the Penn women's team, "I was not trying to become a political figure, and I definitely had no intention of helping anyone win an election," Scanlan said. "It just took a few years and a few ballots to prove" that "most people would agree once they heard about" males in girls' sports.
Washington has repeatedly made itself a target of Trump administration investigations and judicial scrutiny for elevating gender identity over sex in women's prisons, girls' sports, public schools and foster care. Its human rights commission recently disavowed a policy compelling women's nude spas to let in males, as U.S. Supreme Court review looms.
But the wrath of voters on a cultural issue, with the massive exception of affirmative action going back three decades, is a new phenomenon for the progressive Democrats who have ruled the Evergreen State with only sporadic threats to their three-decade majority and are verging on a lower-chamber supermajority this election.
Initiative 638 is passing 56-44% as of Wednesday night, with 70% of estimated votes counted It's losing by nearly the same margin in Seattle's King County, which has more than twice the population of next-largest Pierce County, with 45% of estimated votes to count, but winning convincingly everywhere else except two small coastal counties.
The egg on Colorado's face is largely from its decade-long losing streak at the Supreme Court on gender identity policies. Oral argument this week suggests the Centennial State will lose the latest case, over its requirement that Catholic schools accept children who are transgender, or whose parents are, to participate in a preschool tuition assistance program.
Proposition 134 is passing 53-47% as of Wednesday night, according to the Associated Press, but a higher percentage of estimated votes (85%) have been counted than in Washington.
The narrower support for the latter, in a state less historically dominated by Democrats than Washington, may stem from its application to collegiate as well as K-12 competition. Washington's doesn't cover college.
Both are currently prevailing despite opposing dynamics in spending. Washington's supporters outspent opponents nearly three to one, with total campaign spending at about $10.7 million, while Colorado's opponents outspent supporters 17-1, with total campaign spending around $5.2 million.
Colorado voters are also leaning toward Prop 135, a ban on so-called gender affirming surgeries on minors to resemble the opposite sex through removal of healthy genitals and breasts, and on insurance and government health programs from paying for them, though by a tighter margin.
"This is the same Colorado that became the first state to require insurance coverage for gender-affirming care, surgery included," and just voted for another Democratic governor, Scanlan's essay marveled. Opponents "tried every smear tactic possible. It didn't work."
Victory for girls 'told time and again' by Democrats 'their voices and opportunities don't matter'
Washington's I-638 requires school districts and interscholastic nonprofits to exclude "biologically male students" from girls' sports, and athletes to submit healthcare documentation verifying their female sex to compete in girls sports.
According to an analysis by The Seattle Times, which falsely portrays the initiative as a "ban on trans girls in schools sports" rather than a ban on males in girls' sports, remaining votes to be counted would have to break 60% against the initiative for it to fail.
HUGE victory for Washington State! I-638 passes and girls sports K-12 are now protected on the basis of biology! WoLF proudly supported this initiative and Frances Staudt has worked tirelessly to sound the alarm and make this happen! You can now enjoy your special high school… pic.twitter.com/tUt0U1qEcj
— WoLF (@WomensLibFront) November 4, 2026
LGW Founder tonight: "This is a victory for girls like Frances, Ahnaleigh, Sadie, Bayley, Charlie, Sierra, and countless others who have been told time and again by the majority party that their voices and opportunities don’t matter." pic.twitter.com/gYKE5mxymC
— Let's Go Washington (@letsgowa) November 4, 2026
He was referring to southwest Washington high school cross-country runners who have spoken against males in girls' sports this fall, even forfeiting races against a male who switched to girls' competition mid-season. Two were at the Let's Go Washington party, KVI reported.
The Seattle radio station put the vote in the context of the protest against Camas male runner Logan Mihailoff's participation, which drew girls from Camas, Skyview and Battle Ground. If Mihailoff's result from Saturday's regional meet were removed, Puyallup, in the Seattle area, would qualify for state championships instead of Camas, KVI said.
With ballots still being counted, over a million Washington voters have voted yes on Initiative 638, which aims to keep biological males out of girls’ sports in K-12 schools.
— Alliance Defending Freedom (@ADFLegal) November 4, 2026
Those voters are standing with what ADF and our client Kallie Keeler have argued all along: no girl…
"Even if this ballot initiative passes, wrestling season will start before the new law takes effect," which is why Keeler still needs emergency relief from SCOTUS requiring her school district and Washington Interscholastic Activities Association to automatically opt her out of matches against undisclosed males or at least give her mother notice, ADF said.
This didn't go to court, a challenge to the wording?
— Greg Piper (@gregpiper) November 4, 2026
"This measure would repeal amendments to a statute listing certain rights of parents and guardians of public-school children and re-enact the law as it was originally enacted by Initiative to the Legislature 2081," Brown wrote.
40k fewer total votes than on I-638. People were confused.
— Bruce (@brucebolton) November 4, 2026
"I know some of you might have your U-Hauls; my U-Haul is not rented yet; I'm not moving yet," Let's Go Washington's Heywood told supporters at its election night party. "I am a fighter, and I believe that there's a fight to be had here."
The Facts Inside Our Reporter's Notebook
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- all the way through Tuesday's midterms
- led by racial minorities driven to vote for Barack Obama
- Republican bloodbath
- deep-red Nebraska
- purple Arizona
- 59-31% by expanding an existing ban
- Arizona's Proposition 318
- essay with takeaways on the apparent successes
- spoke publicly against male teammate Lia Thomas's presence
- women's prisons
- girls' sports
- public schools
- foster care
- disavowed a policy compelling women's nude spas
- affirmative action going back three decades
- sporadic threats
- three-decade majority
- lower-chamber supermajority this election
- Initiative 638
- NBC News
- decade-long losing streak at the Supreme Court
- Oral argument this week suggests
- Associated Press
- Washington's supporters outspent opponents
- Colorado's opponents outspent supporters
- leaning toward Prop 135, a ban on so-called gender affirming surgeries
- The Seattle Times
- gender-critical feminists
- Brian Heywood
- forfeiting races against a male
- KVI reported
- Alliance Defending Freedom wrote on X
- alleged sexual assault Keeler endured
- emergency relief from SCOTUS
- cryptic summary
- restore the successful Parents' Bill of Rights
- Brown wrote
- about 40,000 fewer total votes
- "People are confused," an X user theorized
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