A new legal filing says 42% of the names on the Justice Department's California list of suspected noncitizen voters cannot even be matched to the state's current voter file.
That is 8,880 names out of 20,930, according to an analysis prepared by two UCLA Voting Rights Project researchers working with the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights.
The filing answers a narrower question: whether the federal names could be matched to California's current voter file. It does not establish the citizenship or voting eligibility of every person DOJ flagged.
Even so, a 42% no-match rate raises a major accuracy question about a federal list officials were asked to use in the middle of an election.
BREAKING: More than 4 in 10 names flagged as possible noncitizen voters in California cannot be found on voter rolls, according to a legal filing. https://t.co/LihPdUs3WL
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 31, 2026
The Associated Press described the filing as the first outside analysis of the government's 20,930-name list. Two UCLA Voting Rights Project researchers conducted the comparison for the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights.
They reported that 8,880 names, or 42%, did not correspond to anyone on California's current voter file. They also identified at least 22 people DOJ had labeled likely noncitizens as U.S. citizens.
The plaintiffs are challenging the federal government's election demands, so their analysis is not a neutral final ruling. Their filing does not determine the citizenship or voting eligibility of every unmatched person, and the underlying data and matching methods remain disputed in court.
The Justice Department's position is starkly different.
The Justice Department said federal analysts identified more than 20,000 people they believed were likely noncitizens who had received vote-by-mail ballots. The department asked California to sequester ballots tied to those names, then sued after state officials refused.
DOJ's case rests on the claim that those records identify people who may be ineligible to vote in a federal election. California disputes both the reliability of the list and the government's proposed remedy.
Federal law bars noncitizens from voting in federal elections, and any genuine illegal vote should be investigated and prosecuted. Each record still must be verified before a lawful ballot is sidelined because of a bad match, stale data or an untested assumption.
A federal appeals court has already rejected the administration's emergency effort to force California to set the disputed ballots aside while those questions remain unresolved.
A federal appeals court rejects the Justice Department's demand for California to set aside disputed ballots. https://t.co/phVA2jjsXJ
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 30, 2026
The Ninth Circuit's order lays out the compressed timeline: the federal government sent California its list on October 12 and asked the state to sequester the corresponding ballots. California refused, DOJ sued on October 15, the district court denied emergency relief and the federal government appealed.
The appellate court left that denial in place rather than deciding the citizenship or voting status of the listed individuals. Its order did not declare every flagged person eligible, settle whether any noncitizen cast a ballot or resolve the merits of DOJ's broader case.
The immediate ruling concerned whether California had to isolate ballots before those factual disputes could be tested through ordinary litigation. The court rejected that extraordinary interim remedy while the underlying evidence and legal claims remained contested.
California officials have offered their own preliminary evidence that the list contains serious problems.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta's office said a review of 200 names found more than half had canceled or inactive registrations, 38.9% had a U.S. birthplace in state records and 71.2% had no voting history. Those numbers come from a Democratic state official defending California's system, and the federal government disputes the broader conclusion.
The national argument is larger than this one California list. A separate claim circulating Saturday said DHS is examining more than 300,000 potential noncitizen-voting cases nationwide.
#BREAKING: DHS says there are over 300,000 potential noncitizen voting cases.
— Insider Wire (@InsiderWire) October 31, 2026
That nationwide figure is a separate DHS claim. It should not be used as proof that the disputed California names are accurate, just as problems with California's list do not establish that noncitizen voting never occurs.
The immediate issue is evidence.
If DOJ's list is sound, the government should be able to show how each name was matched and why each person was considered likely ineligible. If 42% of the list does not appear on the current voter file at all, officials also need to explain how that happened before any ballot is sidelined.
Election integrity requires both sides of that equation: keep illegal votes out, and do not cancel lawful votes on the strength of unreliable data.
Right now, the new filing suggests the federal list has a very large reliability problem. The court battle will determine whether DOJ can overcome it with better evidence.
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