Let's discuss the wild exit-polling data from last night's GOP defeat

Not the Bee 04 November 2026

This chart shows the red shift that happened from 2020 to 2024 on the left, with the blue shift that happened from 2024-2026 on the right.

Let's talk about it:

Here are the biggest shifts.

In 2024, Latino men voted +33 for Republicans. In 2026, they shifted 57 points to +24 Democrat.
Voters under 29 (Gen Z) voted +13 Republican in 2024. In 2026, they shifted 48 points to +35 Democrat.
Latino men and women combined shifted 47 points, from +27 Republican to +20 Democrat.
Asians were +12 Republican in 2024. They shifted 37 points to +25 Democrat.

Additional polling shows that among the Gen Z voting bloc, white men shifted 45 points from Republican to Democrat.

Two-thirds of Jewish voters still went Democrat, according to NBC, even in areas like Michigan where candidate Abdul El-Sayed was accused of antisemitic comments and connections to Islamic terror groups.

Perhaps most notable for GOP support was that their core voter bloc, evangelical Christians, stayed home. Only 17% of those who voted in the 2026 election were evangelicals, down from about 24% in 2022.

One more exit poll summary before we move on:

The data show that the economy, including inflation, cost of living, home prices, and gas prices were the largest concern of voters.

74% of voters indicated that continued spending on military strikes in Iran, which has spiked gas prices, was a major part of their decision in the voting booth. 62% of that 74% voted Democrat.

Another metric was the impact of tariffs, which are widely supported by Republicans but not favored by the country overall.

Daily Wire reporter Mary Margaret Olohan indicated that GOP insiders are aware that the Iran war and its economic impact was the number one reason people voted for Democrats, but there are some people who are attempting to spin the narrative away from the economy and blame podcasters and foreign influence (think Tucker Carlson and Oman, for example).

Many of those who voted for Democrats indicated that they were simply voting anti-Republican "because it can't get any worse than it is."

Crucially, it should be noted that Trump's deportation policies did not hurt him. In fact, he continued to see broad support for the mandate of mass deportations, even if the majority of Democrats do oppose him (as expected).

Additionally, nine out of ten voters said that government corruption was a major factor in their vote, but Americans were split almost evenly when asked who can best address the corruption (Democrats, Republicans, or Neither).

The exit polling data should be taken with a grain of salt, as there were millions of Republicans who did not show up to vote because they are frustrated and/or disenfranchised. This means millions of conservatives were not polled.

In some cases, like in Texas, voters picked the far-left Senate candidate James Talarico while also voting for the ultra-red candidate Rep. Brandon Gill, showing that as American demographics change, the red/blue divide is more complicated than before.

As for what this means for Republicans, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (who had major Republican wins in Florida despite losses nearly everywhere else in the country) noted that the GOP may not even have a chance to reclaim the Senate for another six years.

Of course, if Democrats win the White House in 2028, nuke the filibuster, stack the Supreme Court, and restart mass migration, none of these exit polls or talks about Republican victories will matter.