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Sat, Oct 31, 2026

James Talarico sends shivers through Democrats as campaign privately admits internals show Texas race still a coin flip: Live updates

James Talarico sends shivers through Democrats as campaign privately admits internals show Texas race still a coin flip: Live updates

There are only three days left until the highly anticipated 2026 midterm elections, and this weekend is shaping up to be dramatic. 

President Donald Trump scrapped his planned in-person rally for today and is instead working from Palm Beach and hosting a series of tele-rallies across the country for vulnerable Republican candidates. 

He'll be traveling to Kansas and Iowa on Sunday to give the GOP a much-needed enthusiasm boost ahead of Tuesday. 

According to prediction market Kalshi, Democrats are anticipated to overwhelmingly cinch power in Congress.

And even traditionally-red South Carolina could go blue. Trump-backed Darline Graham, who has slipped in the polls in recent weeks, made an unusual gaffe about her real feelings about becoming a senator. 

And top election guru Nate Silver has made his final prediction about what's in store for Republicans... and why there's still a glimmer of hope for the GOP. 

Follow along with the Daily Mail's live blog for all key updates: 

17:32

James Talarico sends shivers through Democrats as campaign privately admits internals show Texas race still a coin flip

Texas Democratic candidate for Senate James Talarico has inspired a deluge of spending from the GOP to help prevent a blue wave in Texas, but the 37-year-old's campaign is privately fretting that the Lone Star State could remain in Republican hands.

Sources within the Democrat's campaign told the New York Times that private polling shows that Talarico is tied or within the margin of error of Texas Attorney General and Republican candidate Ken Paxton.

'I think James has at most a 50 percent chance of winning,' Luke Warford, the chairman of the Travis County Democratic Party, told the outlet. 'Which, look, in Texas, that's phenomenal. If you told me a year ago a Democrat would have a coin-flip chance of winning, I'd be doing backflips.'

Weeks ago, polls found Talarico with a six-point edge. More recent surveys find the race is tightening, and sources are saying that's because of an avalanche of donations from the world's richest man, Elon Musk, who now lives in Texas and operates his major corporations Tesla and SpaceX from there.

Musk has donated at least $158 million to groups supporting Paxton's campaign, the Times reports.

The funding has gone to attack ads targeting Talarico, which some sources in his camp admit are hurting their numbers going into Election Day. The race could be the most expensive non-presidential race in US history.

Reports indicate that both campaigns have already spent over $400 million on advertising alone.

Democratic candidate for US Senate from Texas James Talarico speaks at a campaign rally on the campus of Texas A&M University ahead of the November 3rd US midterm elections, in College Station, Texas, US, October 30, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Segar

Darline Graham blames her dead brother for having to run for South Carolina's Senate seat: 'I'm just going to choke Lindsey'

Darline Graham, sister of South Carolina's longtime Senator Lindsey Graham, unexpectedly entered national spotlight after her brother passed away in July and she took over her his job.

Now seeking re-election to serve six more years, the political novice is struggling against Democratic challenger Annie Andrews, who managed to turn the deep-red state into a political battleground.

A new poll this week showed the two candidates were tied, in a stunning twist.

As the once unthinkable prospect of a blue victory South Carolina appears to become more likely, Graham blamed her dead brother for having to run: 'When I get to heaven one day, I am just going to choke Lindsey,' she said in an interview with conservative radio hosts.

LEXINGTON, SOUTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 29: U.S. Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) talks to her grandson, Copeland Roberts, after voting at a polling location at the County of Lexington Auxiliary Administration Building on October 29, 2026 in Lexington, South Carolina. Graham will be facing off against South Carolina Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews in a race to keep her Senate seat during the upcoming midterm elections. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
19:49

Revealed: Alaskan voters tell the Daily Mail whether they'll vote for Democrat Mary Peltola or Republican Dan Sullivan after 'decoy' drama shakes up crucial race

As a report about an alleged election scheme shakes up Alaska's Senate race, Alaskans are revealing to the Daily Mail whether the scandals surrounding Democrat Mary Peltola will impact their votes.

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Alaskans reveal who they'll vote for as 'decoy' drama intensifies

The Daily Mail asked Alaskans directly whether they find the ballot choices confusing and if the saga attracting unprecendented attention to the Last Frontier changed their political views.

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18:26

Storms threaten to dampen midterm turnout as downpours are forecast for Election Day across a major swath of the US

Weather systems crossing the West Coast threaten flash floods that could affect turnout in the US midterms.

Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado are expected to receive rain Sunday through Monday before the system tracks into the central US, CNN reports.

On Election Day this Tuesday, rain is expected to hit the Midwest and Gulf areas. Key races in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas could be impacted as some thunderstorms are expected.

Battlegrounds such as Georgia and North Carolina should be dry and warm come Tuesday, as should Ohio. Maine and New Hampshire face limited rain chances.

US President Donald Trump disembarks Air Force One while holding an umbrella in the rain at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida on October 16, 2026 (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)
17:06

Ted Cruz warns of impending midterm wipeout for Republicans in Congress and across Texas as terrifying voting numbers spark red wave panic

Senator Ted Cruz has sounded the alarm for the GOP, warning of a potential midterm bloodbath both nationally and in his home state of Texas.

Speaking on his podcast, the Texas Republican confessed he is 'deeply, deeply worried' after examining the initial turnout figures.

Early voting numbers released Friday, just four days before Election Day, show over 48 million Americans have already cast their ballots via mail or early in-person voting.

Democrats currently hold a decisive lead in early participation, accounting for 47 percent of votes returned compared to just 35 percent from registered Republicans.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks at the Republican convention Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
17:05

Alarming abuse reports, chained up activists and bitter rematches: The 10 House races that could flip Congress

Republicans are on course to lose the House of Representatives in less than a week, and even President Donald Trump fears his voters will stay home.

The GOP has controlled the White House, Senate and House since Trump returned to power in January 2025. But polling throughout the midterm cycle has consistently shown voters favoring Democrats, and the gap has widened in recent months.

Read on for the seats most likely to decide the majority, where scandals, shocking allegations and family feuds are upending the closest races.

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The 10 House races that could flip Congress

Republicans are likely to lose their majority in the US House of Representatives as the midterm elections quickly approach in less than one week.

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16:53

Maine and the unmaking of the blue tsunami: How the Democrats botched handling of a sex abuse scandal could be the thing that ends their Senate dream

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Maine and the unmaking of the blue tsunami

Troy Jackson, the 58-year-old Democrat logger-turned-politician, is hoping to unseat 73-year-old Collins, the longest-serving Republican woman in Senate history.

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16:52

The polling blindspot: Why democrats could surprise in 2022 trouble spots

Today's New York Times/Siena poll shows incumbent Republican Senator Pete Ricketts leading independent Dan Osborn by six points - a surprising result given earlier partisan polling showing a much tighter race.

While Democrats expected a turnout edge for Kamala Harris, Times/Siena polling shows no such advantage, the New York Times reports.

Because the survey's model relies heavily on past voting records, it may be mirroring 2022 turnout patterns, undercounting Democratic alignment in states like Nebraska where they previously struggled while favoring them in past strongholds.

Senator Pete Ricketts, (R-NE), waves to supporters as Vice President JD Vance speaks during a campaign rally at the D&N Event Center in North Platte, Nebaska, US, October 22, 2026.  Jacquelyn Martin/Pool via REUTERS
16:09

We visited five of America's key midterm bellwethers. This is what they predict for November 3

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We visited America's five midterm bellwethers ahead of midterms

President Trump's name is not on the ballot, but it might as well be. Voters in bellwether counties cross the nation are largely treating the midterms as a referendum on him.

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'The Republican Party has basically sold their soul to the devil,' declared truck driver Greg Florence.

Formerly a Republican, Florence, 65, chose to cast his vote for Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton in Sedgwick County, Kansas.

Diesel is 'freaking ridiculously high,' and there's one person to blame, he fumed.

Donald Trump.

Nearly 700 miles south in Jefferson County, Texas, that explanation for soaring fuel prices did not fly with Karan Berman, 63, an administrator.

With nearly all reputable experts forecasting that the House will be captured by the Democrats, the focus is on control of the Senate, which will be decided by a handful states. And within each state sit crucial bellwether counties.

The Daily Mail visited five of them; Sedgwick County, Kansas; Jefferson County, Texas; Macomb County, Michigan; Montgomery County, Ohio and Waldo County, Maine.

15:43

Republicans are abandoning private polling... and blindly turning to desperate eleventh-hour tactic: MARK HALPERIN's final midterm forecast, as GOP insiders fear nightmare scenario

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Republicans turn to desperate midterm tactic: MARK HALPERIN

The people giving me these assessments have numbers in front of them and candidates on the phone, who are depending on their judgment and last-minute maneuvering.

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The Republican strategists who have spent much of this fall telling themselves the midterms would be bad but survivable are having trouble with the second half of that proposition.

With the election almost here, some of the people with the best access to private polling are contemplating a result considerably worse than the one being discussed on television.

A Blue tsunami is a distinct possibility.

15:34

President Trump escalates bitter feud with Reuters reporter in latest explosive clash

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Trump unleashes vicious body-shaming tirade at reporter

President Donald Trump unleashed a body-shaming tirade at a reporter who asked him Thursday if he nixed a Kansas rally because he was 'sick of travel.'

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Trump took his battle with the press corps to a new level on Saturday morning, launching a personal online attack against Reuters reporter Jacob Bogage from his Palm Beach retreat.

Writing on Truth Social, the president posted a photo of Bogage branded with the bolded text: 'Put yourself in shape. You look like hell.'

Trump added fuel to the fire in his caption, labeling Bogage, 'Reuters (One of the Worst!) Reporter.'

The online broadside marks a sharp escalation in an ongoing row that flared up during a tense exchange with the reporter over campaign schedules and health questions.

15:07

FBI starts contacting donors of Alaska's 'decoy' Dan Sullivan

As Alaska's Senate race is turning more dramatic amid allegations of a Democratic election trickery scheme, the FBI has reportedly arrived in the hometown of 'decoy' candidate Dan Sullivan, who shares his name with the GOP incumbent running for re-election.

FBI agents on the ground visited a boat dealership in the remote fishing community of Petersburg, where they left a business card for a donor who gave money to Dan Sullivan 2.0, AP reported.

This follows news that the name double left his hometown just days before a bombshell investigation accused the former elementary school teacher of being recruited by the Democratic Party.

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Alaska Senate candidate at center of Democrat sabotage plot flees town

Daniel J Sullivan, doppelganger of Republican incumbent Dan S Sullivan, disappeared from the tiny fishing town of Petersburg where he lives earlier this week.

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