The history professor who inaccurately predicted former Vice President Kamala Harris (D) would beat President Donald Trump (R) in 2024 is predicting a major Democrat win in the midterm elections on Tuesday.
American University professor and historian Allan Lichtman believes Democrats will sweep the U.S. House and Senate, the Daily Mail reported, citing an interview the professor did with The Times:
“When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump’s, on average the White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,” Lichtman told the Times. “It’s not a prediction, that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.”
Lichtman said Democrats are leading Republicans by seven to 11 points on the generic congressional ballot, which he considers more reliable than individual race polls.
During a recent interview with Hromadske Int., Lichtman claimed, “It’s almost certain, 90 percent plus, that Democrats will take over the House. The Senate is more difficult because Democrats have to win quite a few seats, four or five seats, in deep red states. That’s certainly possible but it’s difficult.”
Democrats have a “90 percent plus” chance of winning the US House in November’s midterms, political historian Allan Lichtman told hromadske.
— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) October 30, 2026
He puts their chances of taking the Senate at roughly two-thirds.
Watch his prediction in our exclusive interview 👇… pic.twitter.com/lPlxgDGhBA
When predicting Harris would win in 2024, Lichtman based it on three faulty assumptions, Breitbart News reported a few months before Trump beat her in 2024.
“Lichtman claims to have accurately predicted presidential elections since 1984, though critics say many ‘keys’ to his model are open to interpretation so they can conform to whatever the election outcome is. More on Lichtman's dubious track record is here,” the article read:
Lichtman arrived at his 2024 prediction by making three untrue assumptions. First, he argued the Biden-Harris administration's economy is a success, even though costs have risen about 20 percent across the board on average.
Second, he argued the Biden-Harris administration's foreign policy is a success, even though Russia invaded Ukraine, Hamas holds hostages in Gaza, and the U.S. conducted a deadly Afghan withdrawal.
Third, Lichtman claims there is no sustained social unrest during the term, even though pro-Palestinian protesters remain active on college campuses.
After Harris lost, Lichtman blamed his faulty prediction on conservative media “disinformation” and billionaire Elon Musk.
During his recent interview with the Times, Lichtman also speculated about voter enthusiasm.
“Usually Republicans turn out at a higher rate but this time it looks like the Democratic enthusiasm is higher,” he said.
His comments came as Americans have watched the Democrat Party move even further to the left.
In a social media post Thursday, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) highlighted the radical leftist agenda:
The Democrat Party is being taken over by the insurgent left who wants to:
— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) October 29, 2026
✖️Abolish the borders
✖️Abolish prisons
✖️Defund the police
✖️Defund the Department of War
✖️Men back in women’s sports and girls’ locker rooms
They’re telling us what they’re about. It’s CRAZY! pic.twitter.com/DM2IG6s6dP
“They're telling us what they're about. It's CRAZY!” he wrote.
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