President Donald Trump could authorize a nuclear strike against Iran's heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain facility within days, conservative commentator Tucker Carlson said Sunday.
The Daily Caller News Foundation independently corroborated the central allegation with a source familiar with the matter. The warning follows months of American threats against Iran's underground nuclear infrastructure and renewed discussions of military action following Tuesday's midterm elections.
The proposed target is Pickaxe Mountain, a tunnel complex near Natanz where Israeli intelligence believes Tehran has resumed uranium enrichment, Carlson claimed in a lengthy X post. (RELATED: Trump Eyes Iranian Target That Would Probably Take A Nuke To Totally Destroy)
Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its…
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) November 2, 2026
"The only military option is a nuclear strike," Carlson argued, contending American conventional weapons cannot penetrate approximately 300 feet of granite protecting the site in the post.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been lobbying Trump to authorize the attack, Carlson claimed, quoting an unnamed observer who said, "Bibi calls Trump about it every day."
Carlson alleged that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper favor renewed combat, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe also aligned with Netanyahu.
Vice President JD Vance and presidential envoy Steve Witkoff instead favor reaching an agreement with Tehran, according to Carlson. The president could make a decision by Saturday, Nov. 7, but remains hesitant, he claimed.
Netanyahu pressed Trump to resume strikes immediately after the midterms, while Trump favored giving negotiations more time, Axios reported, citing Israeli and American sources.
Trump previously rejected using nuclear weapons against Iran.
"I wouldn't use nuclear. We don't have to," Trump said during an Oct. 15 interview with Rob Finnerty on NewsMax, according to a Roll Call transcript.
The president nevertheless threatened another attack on Pickaxe Mountain. "We may have to go there. We'll take a shot at that one," Trump said during the same interview.
Whether a nuclear strike could reliably destroy the installation remains an open technical question.
Pickaxe Mountain's underground complex is estimated to sit at least 100 meters, or approximately 328 feet, beneath the mountain, although its precise depth and layout remain uncertain, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.
Some analysts contend that even America's nuclear arsenal may be unable to reliably destroy the underground complex.
"There is no nuclear weaponeering solution to Pickaxe," X account Policy Tensor claimed Monday, arguing that America's B61-11 nuclear earth-penetrating bomb cannot physically penetrate anywhere near the facility's estimated depth.
There is no nuclear weaponeering solution to Pickaxe.
— Policy Tensor (@policytensor) November 2, 2026
The B61-11 is the only earth-penetrator in the US arsenal that could be used. Its maximum penetration is in meters. Pickaxe facilities are buried under more than 100 meters of solid granite. Pickaxe is invulnerable. https://t.co/vhW3AfCrt7 pic.twitter.com/4WUCuwmeGn
"Pickaxe is invulnerable," the account claimed. (RELATED: Trump Eyes New Iran Blitz After Midterm Elections)
The B61-11's limited penetration capabilities are documented, although that alone does not establish the facility's invulnerability. An underground nuclear detonation can generate powerful shock waves capable of damaging targets far deeper than the weapon physically penetrates, according to the National Academies.
Nevertheless, certain exceptionally hardened underground installations may withstand even powerful nuclear attacks, according to a Congressional Research Service report citing former Los Alamos National Laboratory nuclear weapons official Stephen Younger.
The military effectiveness of a nuclear strike against Pickaxe Mountain would therefore depend on the weapon's yield, the surrounding geology and the facility's actual depth and construction, according to the National Academies.
Conventional alternatives could also disable the installation without destroying its deepest chambers.
"My impression is that the MOP is unlikely to penetrate into the tunnels under Pickaxe Mountain, unless there are vulnerable entry points like ventilation shafts, which the U.S. used to deliver the MOP into Fordow in June 2025. Of course, the MOP could be used to seal entrances and exits of the tunnels," Gary Samore, a politics professor at the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University, previously told the DCNF. "I believe that an earth-penetrating nuclear warhead could destroy the underground site at Pickaxe Mountain, but … it is extremely unlikely that Trump will order a nuclear strike on Iran."
Satellite imagery also raises questions about whether the site currently represents an active nuclear threat. Construction activity and other observable indicators suggested the installation was not yet capable of enrichment operations, according to an October CSIS analysis.
Beyond the uncertain military benefits, an American nuclear attack could have enormous international consequences.
"This would break a more-than-eighty-year tradition of not using nuclear weapons that has come to be seen as a taboo against nuclear use," Jeff Knopf, professor and program chair of the Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, previously told the DCNF. "Once the taboo is broken, it would set a precedent that would make it easier for other countries to carry out nuclear attacks — with the most likely case being Russia considering a nuclear strike against Ukraine."
Carlson issued a similar warning Sunday, claiming Moscow had already informed other governments that American nuclear use against Iran could justify Russian nuclear attacks against Ukraine in his X post.
Carlson also alleged that the administration had loosened American nuclear doctrine to make first use easier, although he provided no publicly verifiable documentation supporting that specific claim.
"Breaking the nuclear non-use norm that has persisted since 1945 would be a world-changing event," Philipp Bleek, fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and the Center on Terrorism, Extremism, and Counterterrorism, previously told the DCNF. "At worst, it might usher in an era where others perceived lesser restraints on nuclear weapons use. But it might also have the opposite effect, galvanizing the world to bolster the norm. On balance, I am more pessimistic than optimistic about how this might play out."
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