OAN Staff Brooke Mallory
4:31 PM – Saturday, August 1, 2026
Former New York Representative George Santos has agreed to pay approximately $35,000 to resolve federal regulatory allegations that he illegally manipulated prediction markets by betting on his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union (SOTU) address earlier this year.
The settlement, announced on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), concludes a media-frenzied probe into market manipulation and insider knowledge on retail event contract platforms.
According to the CFTC’s order, Santos “engaged in a deliberate series of misleading social media posts” to swing the odds of a Kalshi prediction market tied to whether he would attend the joint session of Congress.
Regulators revealed that after creating and funding a Kalshi account in February this year, Santos initially bought tens of thousands of “Yes” contracts. He then posted publicly on X asking followers what suit he should wear to the speech, driving up the price of “Yes” contracts from 15 cents to 70 cents before liquidating his position for a profit.
Subsequently, Santos then posted a video claiming he would attend the event in person while simultaneously building an $8,650 position on the “No” side. Shortly after, he posted that he was stuck at an airport and could not make the speech, cashing out his “No” contracts for a profit of over $14,000 once his absence was confirmed.
Under the terms of the settlement, Santos agreed to pay $17,569.98 in disgorgement to return his trading gains, alongside an equal civil monetary penalty of $17,500. Altogether, Santos has to pay $35,069.98.
The CFTC also imposed a three-year ban prohibiting him from trading on CFTC-regulated commodity derivatives and prediction market exchanges. While Santos agreed to the sanctions and financial payments, the settlement allows him to resolve the matter without admitting or denying the CFTC’s formal findings of fraud and market manipulation.
Legal representatives for Santos defended his actions, emphasizing that the resolution was a practical move to eliminate ongoing legal costs rather than a confession of wrongdoing. Defense attorney Joseph Murray stated that Santos had genuine intentions to attend the Capitol address but was thwarted by severe East Coast winter weather disruptions that grounded his travel plans.
Murray argued further that Santos concealed neither his travel intentions nor his mid-transit change of plans, asserting there was no fraudulent intent or attempt to manipulate retail investors.
The case originated when internal compliance systems at Kalshi flagged Santos’ account activity and suspended his trading privileges, subsequently referring the case to both the CFTC and the Department of Justice (DOJ). Kalshi enforcement officials stated they also intend to pursue independent exchange-level disciplinary action and will attempt to distribute recovered penalty funds to traders adversely affected by the manipulated order book.
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