Is US President Donald Trump doing a “balancing act” of sorts in the Middle East? His latest gestures towards the Saudis and Qatar, and even surprising statements about pressuring Israel into allowing humanitarian aid to get to Palestine clearly suggest so.

Donald Trump’s Middle East policy in 2025 is, by all indication, a high-stakes balancing act, blending economic opportunism, coercive diplomacy, and calculated pressure on allies and adversaries alike. His recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—notably excluding Israel—signals a strategic pivot, prioritizing Gulf investments and regional stability over unwavering allegiance to the US-Israel “special relationship.”

While Trump’s gestures toward Saudi Arabia and Qatar, alongside calls for humanitarian aid to Palestine, suggest a pragmatic recalibration, his approach remains rooted in that transactional “they’re ripping us off” mindset. This blunt, Mafia-style tactic—often devoid of traditional diplomacy—employs tariffs, threats, and provocative proposals to extract concessions, thereby leaving partners on edge—as Israel is now seeing. Yet, beneath the bluster, Trump’s moves serve basically as a stark reminder to the Jewish State: Washington holds the reins, and therefore even its closest ally must “behave”, so to speak—or pay a price.

Trump’s foreign policy is after all defined by a belief that allies somehow “exploit” American generosity, a perspective that ironically overlooks the US global dominance through dollar weaponization and military might. Be that as it may, Trump’s “big stick” approach, often likened to Nixon’s “madman theory” method, mixes bluffing with serious intent, thereby creating confusion among allies and adversaries.

In the Middle East, this now manifests as pressure on Israel, the largest recipient of US aid—$150 billion by 2022—to pressure it into aligning with broader American interests. One may recall that earlier this year Trump’s reported push for Tel Aviv to vote against Ukraine at the UN, as I wrote. This underscores the American President’s willingness to leverage Israel’s dependence so as to serve the US agenda.

The January 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire, largely credited to Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, exemplifies this dynamic. While the truce did bolster Israeli security by pausing hostilities, it also highlighted US restraint. Trump’s team compelled the Jewish state to accept a deal it had previously rejected, thus signaling that support for Israeli occupation comes with limits.

One may also recall the Republican’s provocative proposal for a US “takeover” of Gaza, widely rejected by Arab states and criticized as ethnic cleansing: it was, in any case, probably less a serious plan (preposterous as it is) than a “bullying” tactic to remind Tel Aviv of American leverage. By floating such ideas, Trump underscores that Israel’s actions—particularly Netanyahu’s escalatory aims—risk alienating the US, which seeks in turn to avoid a wider regional war (with Iran) that could disrupt Gulf investments or oil markets.

Trump’s Middle East tour further illustrates this balancing act. In Saudi Arabia, the American leader inked $600 billion in deals, including arms sales and AI chip technology partnerships, all while downplaying demands for immediate Saudi-Israeli normalization (that is, normalizing ties). Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in turn emphasized the necessity of a Gaza ceasefire and Palestinian statehood, a stance Trump (surprisingly enough, for some) did not publicly challenge.

Similarly, in Qatar, the US leader focused on trade and investment, including a Boeing deal, while engaging in ceasefire talks without prioritizing Tel Aviv’s immediate interests. Moreover, his vision for the region, as articulated in Saudi Arabia, made scant mention of Israel, a remarkable departure from his first term’s controversial Abraham Accords. These moves suggest a deliberate “shift” toward Gulf states, whose financial clout and mediation roles in Gaza and Ukraine align with Trump’s transactional priorities. Given Trump’s often unpredictable pragmatism, any such shift should be taken with a grain of salt.

For the Jewish state, in any case, this is cause for concern. Trump’s willingness to sideline the issue of normalization—once a cornerstone of his Middle East policy—signals that Israel is not the only game in town. Tel Aviv unease is palpable enough, with some Israeli analysts and opinion-makers claiming Trump is “moving ahead on Middle East deals without Netanyahu”—basically accusing him of dragging his feet on Saudi normalization. Others note that Trump’s tariff policies and Houthi ceasefire deal exclude Israel, further straining ties.

The absence of Israel from Trump’s itinerary, coupled with his reported frustration with Netanyahu, reinforces the message: Washington’s support is not unconditional

Yet, the US President’s approach is not without risks. His coercive tactics, such as threatening Hamas with “hell to pay” or proposing Gaza’s displacement, still alienate Arab partners and fuel perceptions of American insensitivity to Palestinian suffering. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while open to US investment, remain firm on their stance on Palestinian statehood, a nonstarter for Netanyahu’s government. Moreover, Trump’s focus on economic deals—AI chips, rare earth minerals, and arms sales—risks sidelining the Palestinian issue (amid the plight of Palestinians, in a catastrophic situation that can be described as genocidal), thus potentially destabilizing the region even further.

Trump’s refusal to firmly condemn Israel’s Gaza blockade, despite Gulf pressure, suggests a delicate tightrope: supporting Israeli security while signaling that overreach could jeopardize US backing.

In essence, Trump’s Middle East policy is yet another calculated gamble to reassert US dominance through economic leverage and strategic restraint. By cozying up to Gulf states and pressuring Tel Aviv, he aims to secure investments and stabilize the region (for American interests) without committing to costly military entanglements. For Israel, the message is clear: Washington remains its strongest ally, but the Jewish state must align with broader American interests or risk isolation.

Whether this balancing act succeeds depends on Trump’s ability to appease sectors of the “Deep State” and defense industry well enough—plus his capacity to navigate the region’s complexities without igniting new conflicts. For now, his blunt reminders of Washington’s power keep allies like Israel on notice, even as they strain the “special relationship” that once defined US Middle East policy (and, in a way, still does).

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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.

Uriel Araujo, PhD, is an anthropology researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

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