Human Events Daily host Jack Posobiec sat down with Lt. Col. Tony Schafer on Tuesday to discuss the state of the war in Ukraine, where Schafer offered a blunt assessment: Russia is not only winning the war on the ground, it may soon decide to end it.

“One side is winning in the information narrative, one side is winning the actual war on the ground,” Posobiec said. “When I go look at the front lines over in eastern Ukraine… I don’t see the Ukrainians making advances on the battlefield, I see the Russians making advances.”

Schafer criticized the way some in conservative media have downplayed Russia’s progress. “I see this constant diminution by certain voices within conservative media about how effective the Russians are,” he said. “Jack Keane was on the other day talking about—almost dismissive, laughing, ‘they’ve been fighting to take Ukraine for the past three years and they’re still not doing it.’ Jack, that’s not what they’re trying to do... It’s a war of attrition, and the Russian objective is to degrade and basically demilitarize Ukraine and the West."

Posobiec shared insights from a recent trip to Budapest, where he met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. “I sat down with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán last week in Budapest in his presidential palace and the prime minister’s residence, an absolute honour to be there,” he said. “He told me that he went to the Russians and said, ‘will you choose for peace?’ And the Russians told them, 'well, we’re winning and we have time on our side.' Then he went to the Ukrainians, 'will you choose peace?' And they told him, 'we’re winning and time’s on our side.' Which side is right?”

Schafer responded directly: “If they both persist in that attitude, I think it’s time for us to decide that it’s time for us to leave, but that’s not your question. I think the Russians are winning and not by a little, by a lot.”

Explaining Russia’s cautious approach, Schafer said, “Why would you expose yourself to extended risk by sending folks forward in offensive operations which expose you to additional drones—you become vulnerable. Why do that when you’re basically facing an enemy who is badly advised, badly led, and frankly, people like Mark Milley, a rocket scientist if I ever met one, is telling you stupid things, not giving you the right strategy.”

“Why would you want to expose yourself to risk,” he added, “if you can just sit back and let them come wave after wave on your strength and lose?”

Schafer predicted a bleak outcome for Ukraine if the current trajectory holds. “They’re going to basically leave Ukraine a rump state by the fact that it’ll be not only demilitarized, it’ll be depopulated,” he said. “The Russians have an order of magnitude more men and resources to throw at this… So, the more Ukraine throws their stuff in there, they have their time, the more they lose time and lose resources.”

“I don’t think it’s close,” he said. “I think the Russians—should they choose to use a military solution on this—they can be done by July or August.”