In historical terms when the situation is moving towards a significant change in the balance of power, possibilities of war can increase, although by no means war is inevitable in such circumstances.

The present times and the near future have been discussed frequently in terms of a change in the world’s balance of power. Along with this the increasing possibility of a big war has also been mentioned.

While significant shifts in balance of power have occurred many times in history, the present times for such a shift, if it actually takes place, are unprecedented as it is for the first time that a big shift in balance of power will be taking place in conditions where the world has weapons of mass destruction that have the capacity to destroy the entire world, more or less.

Hence it is of the greatest urgency to take steps to ensure that if and when the anticipated shift in the balance of power reaches a critical stage, the situation can be controlled and managed in such a way that the possibility of a war, particularly a big and highly destructive war, can be avoided.

Now to look at this issue in greater detail, I have divided this issue of great importance into a number of sub-questions, which I try to answer briefly.

Is it true that when a significant change in balance of power occurs, it is likely to be accompanied by a big war?

Yes, chances of a big war increase in such times as big rival powers seek to either accelerate or check the change in balance of power. In such times tensions and suspicions tend to rise sharply, and this too can increase possibilities of war. During the 19^th century Britain was the leading world power, but in the first half of the 20^th century this was challenged by other fast emerging and ambitious powers, particularly Germany, and this period saw two world wars.

Is a war inevitable at the times of such change?

No, diplomacy and peace efforts can avert the possibility of big wars. The dissolution of the Soviet Union around 1990 cannot be called a change in the balance of power in the strict sense but it was nevertheless a very big change in the world political scene, and it could be accomplished, along with the unification of Germany, entirely peacefully because of the wisdom and commitment to peace of Soviet leaders led by Gorbachev on the one hand and several senior western diplomats on the other hand.

Are present times witnessing an important change in world’s balance of power?

Yes, this can be seen at several levels. One view is to see this as a shift from the west to Asia, but it is more usual to speak in terms from a possible shift from the USA to China. Some also speak of a shift from NATO countries to BRICS members. There are problems in all these conceptualizations, but these give an idea of the kind of change that may be in the making. At the popular level there is more discussion in terms of shift in the balance of power from USA to China.

What are the important aspects of such a change?

Such a change is often discussed at two levels—economic and military. However there are also other important aspects including diplomacy, friendship and goodwill of other countries, soft power, democracy, media reach etc.

How is the military balance changing?

USA is the leading military power on the strength of its massive military budget and its huge stocks of the most destructive weapons. However corruption eats up a significant part of its massive budget, and the USA has not been able to win wars against determined opposition in Vietnam and Afghanistan. China has huge armed forces matched by the resources of a fast expanding industrial economy. Both countries are big nuclear weapon powers, but the USA has several times more nuclear weapons. USA has tried to surround China with the help of Asian allies and Australia, but these may be highly reluctant allies when it comes to the possibility of an all-out war. The USA may be a much bigger military power on paper, but not necessarily superior when attacking China from a long distance. In its secure geographical location, the USA does not have much to fear from the possibility of any Chinese invasion (or any other invasion) in a non-nuclear war. On the whole, the wisest suggestion is to ask both countries to altogether avoid a war. A highly destructive war between the two can also bleed both the powers to such an extent that they both are eliminated from the race for the top spot. During 1914-44 both Britain and Germany were weakened greatly by their wars, leaving the place free for the USA to emerge as the number one power.  

What is the shifting balance of economic power?

With its high growth rates China has surged ahead of the USA in terms of GNP, and is the bigger industrial power now. The USA has accumulated high debts, budget and trade deficits to an alarming extent. Due to these factors and irresponsible, aggressive use of dollar domination, the position of the US dollar as the leading world reserve currency has been badly affected. Some observers feel that China’s currency may increasingly gain higher acceptance as world reserve currency, while the USA is determined to prevent this and maintain the US dollar’s strong position as world reserve currency. The USA and China have recently been drifting rapidly away from their earlier acceptance of mutually complementary roles, and now are increasingly hostile in trade and economic issues, as seen in the recent tariff war.

Is an imbalance in military and economic powers emerging, and what can be its implications?

For a long time the USA was the undoubted leading economic power as well as military power. While it is still the leading military power, its economic power has been eroded , and the dominance of US dollar is also threatened, something which worries the USA even more in conditions of its accumulated huge debts and trade and budget deficits. When a country is the leading military power but is lagging behind in economic power, it may be tempted to use its military power to re-emerge as the leading economic power. Of course this is neither wise nor safe, but the temptation may be there, and this is why the situation of such an imbalance may be a dangerous one.

In ethical terms, which side is better, and whose side we should take?

As in any such comparison, something good and bad can be said for both sides, but the USA has been the leading imperialist power of recent decades and has been responsible for the loss of the life of millions of people in its entirely avoidable, reckless, forever wars. On the other hand, China too has acted in highly unethical ways in several contexts. So the important thing here is not to take sides on the basis of endless discussion on who is better, but to act in a non-partisan way to try to increase the possibilities of peaceful resolution of all contentious issues, thereby increasing the chances of avoiding war. Instead of being on this side or the other, we should speak against the entire concept of any single country trying to dominate world affairs.

In the present context of a much-discussed change in the balance of power, is the possibility of a big war, more specifically US-China war, increasing?

Both China and the USA will suffer greatly in such a war but despite this, such a possibility has been increasingly discussed, and given the track record of so many destructive and avoidable wars in the recent past involving the USA directly or indirectly, on the whole there is certainly the possibility of such a war, a direct confrontation or perhaps a proxy war, in the near future which should get high level attention.

Is such a US-China war, likely to involve several allies as well, inevitable?

No, it is certainly not inevitable. The chances of this happening can still be very significantly reduced with timely diplomacy and peace efforts, with the UNO also making its contribution and the peace movement and senior retired diplomats also making increased efforts for peace.

I hope to take up these issues in greater detail in follow-up articles, but let me conclude here by saying that these issues should get the highest attention of all those who are committed to safety and peace.

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Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, A Day in 2071, Earth without Borders and Man over Machine—A Path to Peace. He is a regular contributor to Global Research.

Featured image: 1866 cartoon by Daumier, L’Equilibre Européen, representing the balance of power as soldiers of different nations teeter the earth on bayonets (Public Domain)

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