Ukraine um what do you make out of the

most recent development in what I still

hope is a peace process but it might

actually be unraveling in front of our

eyes

yeah I I don’t really see much evidence

for a peace process that involves the

United States or its so-called NATO

allies i don’t see much happening there

i I think what we we have to keep in

mind and we don’t understand this in the

West at all is that the guiding

strategic imperative for President Putin

from the very outset from February

2022 until now has been to scrupulously

avoid war with the United States and

NATO that’s something he doesn’t want

and never has wanted and so he’s worked

to try and contain the conflict keep it

from spreading and try to prevent the

Europeans from foolishing intervening in

it now the difference between Ukraine

today and the Ukrainian war with Russia

today and what it was in February 2022

is very important in at the time that

Russia entered eastern Ukraine for the

purpose as they as we know of uh

essentially ending the oppression of the

Russians that lived there stop the

discrimination the maltreatment and in

fact the killings of Russian citizens

going on in Luhansk Donetsk

Uh Russia at that point was actually not

very strong it it had a modest military

establishment it could intervene in

eastern Ukraine but it certainly wasn’t

capable of doing a great deal more than

essentially intervening and sending

quote unquote a signal that Russia was

serious about its

intentions that has changed russia is

now arguably the leading certainly army

ground force in the world let there be

no mistake about it and they have taken

some casualties but nothing compared

with what has happened to the Ukrainians

and I would estimate perhaps 100 to

120,000 Russian soldiers have been

killed and when I say Russian that

includes obviously Chetchin forces that

have joined into this battle and also

Luhanska Donetsk veterans people that

have fought there to begin with with the

Russians against Ukrainians but the

Ukrainians have now lost 1.5 million

people

russia has developed a a marvelous

24-hour a day 7-day a week manufacturing

base capable of meeting all the demands

of the battlefield from standard

munitions for artillery all the way up

to and including sophisticated drones

missiles rockets and so forth in other

words Russia’s on a war fitting war

footing russia has effectively won the

fight on the battlefield and is now po

poised to complete its destruction of

its enemy let’s be frank that’s where

they are and the Ukrainians are in very

very bad shape each day is worse more

people are being killed it’s very

reminiscent of what it was like to be in

the German military in the last 6 to 8

months of World War II that’s when the

Germans by the way took most of their

casualties and people don’t realize that

uh but when you look at that war that’s

it’s very similar to the the collapse of

the German armed forces and the and the

Germans did not completely collapse all

at once they had to be driven out and

they certainly fought as they retreated

and withdrew but the point is that’s

what we have right now with the

Ukrainians now the difference is I think

things have changed inside Ukraine we’re

now hearing that there are large numbers

of Ukrainian organizations you could

call them gangs whatever you want to

call them who are now essentially

obstructing the forcible recruitment of

Ukrainians into the army in other words

they’re not allowing either old men

young men or any men that can be found

on the streets to be picked up shoved

into vans and sent off for a couple of

weeks of orientation and then killed on

the Eastern Front against the Russians

they’re stopping it so there’s real

opposition to the war inside Ukraine in

ways that did not exist let’s say 6 or

12 months ago inside Russia the opposite

is the case they have no trouble

recruiting they have no trouble with

volunteers they have more troops than

they know what to do with at this point

in other words they have almost more

that they can adequately train and equip

and prepare for operations

uh than they need but they are still

taking them in they are bringing them in

they are outfitting them and they have

enough forces that they can now rotate

routinely in and out of the battle zone

and gradually introduce new formations

to the battlefront so that they can

learn how to fight without losing

heavily in the process these changes are

very important so when you talk about a

peace process there is none because the

United States led by President Trump uh

in a in a state of complete and utter

what I would call ignorance and

arrogance has walked into this war and

said “I’m going to stop this i’m going

to force Zalinski and Putin to the table

as though this were a schoolyard dispute

and two opposing boys could be made to

sit in the corner and cooperate with

each other there is never been an

understanding in Washington of the

complexities of this fight how it came

about what the long-term problems are

there’s no no comprehension of what the

Russians continually refer to as the

root problems nor has there been any

willingness to address those and

Russia’s legitimate national security

interests have been treated with

complete contempt so now Trump is

irrelevant the United States is

irrelevant and he’s essentially thrown

up his hands walked away and abdicated

responsibility for the conflict in the

meantime the people that have always

wanted this war for the purpose of

harming Russia who are sitting in the

Senate in the House in the CIA and

potentially the Department of Defense or

State Department they are in charge so

they are continuing to provide aid and

continuing to push the war that’s where

we are yeah I I I agree with that

assessment the thing is you know I a

couple of weeks ago I talked to Mikuel

Fondulenborg he’s a European a German

MEP in in the European Parliament and he

was for many many years a a negotiator

and and and you know involved in also

the peace process between Iran and Iraq

and his assessment of the the way that

things were going was that this is what

we usually see in peace processes where

one side makes an offer then the other

one and the the fighting continues at

the time and the the big difference now

to let’s say half a year ago when Mr

biden was still in office is that we

actually do have talks happening phone

calls we have delegations meeting in uh

in Istanbul and um do you do you hold

any hopes for this political process

that’s going hand in hand and you know

the Russians made it clear they will not

give a ceasefire and negotiate we will

negotiate while shooting and only once

we have an a hard deal the way that the

the Russians think this will actually

help solve the overall problem then the

shooting will end um how do you see this

parallel track um um uh strategy of the

Russians evolving

well as long as Zilinski is in charge in

Kief and his little band that surrounds

him uh I see no hope for any sort of

solution at all because anytime he is

approached he makes it abundantly clear

that there will be no recognition of any

of the territorial gains made by the

Russians there will be no recognition of

Crimea uh nothing nothing along those

lines or is forthcoming from him i think

as long as he’s there there will be no

peace and if you listen to Lavough who

spoke yesterday and read from a paper

trying to explain what Russia’s

positions are not that it was new i mean

we’ve listened to these positions over

and over and over again for months

except that nobody in Washington has

listened but the rest of us have all

listened to it but he made it very clear

th this is an impass and as long as this

regime is in power

The Russians will not abandon the

Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine

effectively Russians in eastern Ukraine

to the tender mercies of the Ukrainians

because they know that with this regime

in charge if they were to do such a

thing the SBU in other words Ukrainian

secret police would simply show up and

start putting bullets in everybody’s

head and that’s unacceptable in fact you

know a lot of people don’t understand

this when the Russians first went into

eastern Ukraine they were told “Don’t

shoot at anybody unless you’re being

shot at uh avoid any confrontation if

you can talk to people.” And so lots of

Russians came out and said “Hi we’re so

glad to see you where have you been

thank God and what are you going to do?”

And the answer was “Well we’re going to

come in here until there’s an agreement

and then we’re leaving we’re going back

to Russia.” And and these people said

“Well if you’re not going to stay get

the hell out of here because the only

thing you’re doing is consigning us to a

firing squad we’ll all be murdered after

you leave.” Well it took a while for

that to sink in in Moscow it actually

took 2 or 3 months and finally Putin

realized he was dealing with a very

different situation from the one he

thought he was confronting well I think

that still obtains now only it obtains

with great clarity they’re not giving up

anything that they currently hold and

they don’t see any reason why they

should in fact they’ve now publicized

what they are calling a buffer zone and

if you look at the buffer zone that’s

most everything that’s east of the Neper

River plus Odessa well gosh what a

surprise i’ve been waiting for that for

the last two years well this is this is

where we’re headed as a minimum and

nothing is going to change that and our

friend Zalinski is going to continue to

talk as though he has a chance to re

reverse that or a chance to halt this as

long as we continue to support him and

we’re continuing to support him so in

your assessment like you know the idea

of a buffer zone in my view the the

Russian optimal case would have been

entire the entirety of Ukraine to be a

buffer zone as a neutral state right and

a big that was the idea and now it seems

the Russians are giving up on that and

saying like okay if we can’t have a big

buffer zone then we want at least a

military 150 200 kilometer buffer zone

uh in order to to make sure that these

most the fastest small rockets can’t

reach very very quickly right do you

think that’s the new strategy now saying

like okay if we don’t get an agreement

we create a military solution to this uh

to this problem and it will include a

buffer zone which we don’t control but

which is basically a bit like the 38th

parallel in in the Koreas right well I

think it’s I think they will control it

in fact I think before you get the

so-called buffer zone they will denute

it of Ukrainian military presence i

don’t think they’re going to tolerate

that so I I think ultimately everything

up to the NPA river will be cleared of

Ukrainians and then they’re going to go

into Odessa remember Odessa is the

principal resupply point for the

Ukrainian military certainly we fly

things into Poland we send things

through Poland into Ukraine but they get

an enormous amount of support supplies

everything from ammunition to food

through Odessa so to ignore Odessa and

leave that in Ukrainian hands is

something that I don’t think the

Russians are going to do i I think we

have to look at this a little

differently i think yes they’ve

concluded that what reason do they have

to believe anything we say that’s the

first question look at what happened

with the Minsk agreements and obviously

Putin signed on to that and they made a

fool out of out of President Putin let’s

face it Putin and Lavough looked foolish

and stupid they believed what Merkel and

Obama and subsequently Trump said it was

all nonsense it never it never had any

basis in fact so if you’ve already been

down the road with this Minsk business

what are you going to believe unless you

cross the river and expunge this regime

in Kief and right now I I don’t think

that they’ve decided to do it but I

think they’re getting closer with each

passing day but what they have decided

is that everything up to the river is

going to be under Russian control it

will be denuted of any Ukrainian forces

now will they ultimately decide uh at

some point are they prepared to turn

over say DPRO or something like this to

the Ukrainians uh I don’t know i I doubt

it it’s it’s not impossible they’ve

already looked at Sunumi after the Kursk

intervention and they said why are we

why are we uh stopping what what is the

incentive for us to halt anywhere short

of the Napper River aren’t we leaving

ourselves open to future attack if you

can control everything up to the Neper

River and someone moves short range or

intermediate range ballistic missiles

into western Ukraine you can destroy

those from eastern Ukraine in other

words you have the range and the reach

you have the overhead satellites as well

as other forms of surveillance and of

course you’ve got lots of operatives on

the ground who are going to pick up the

cell phone and tell you what you want to

know so the Russians I think are saying

if we can’t get a truly neutral state

because we don’t know that we can ever

trust an agreement that creates a

neutral state in western Ukraine if we

occupy and control everything up to the

river plus Odessa we probably have

control of the region if we need it in

other words if we have to attack into

the west if we have to destroy something

we see over there if we see things

develop as we watched in the past then

we can attack so I think that’s kind of

the thinking behind the scenes i’m

speculating i I’m not on on distribution

from the Russian general staff it would

make life a lot easier but the the point

is I think that’s where the mentality is

right now yeah I I see that too because

you know on on in some stupid corners of

mass media the the the the narrative we

get is still oh my god Putin will will

occupy all of Ukraine and then he will

go into Europe i mean the there is no

military uh uh rationale behind trying

to take the entirety of Ukraine right

that would be a poison pill so the

question is how do you how do you keep

that that bad part out have your the

part that you claim and that is filled

with with Russian people and so on that

is now under the Russian constitution uh

safe and then the buffer zone what would

that what is a buffer zone in in

military terms i mean is it no man’s

land or is it like the the jur uh

Ukrainian but the the Russian military

has like um absolute uh control over it

how how how should we imagine that

buffer zone to what will it be i mean

the Russians would probably not chase

away all of the civilian inhabitants of

that area right no no I don’t think so

either uh I think they would leave that

civilian population in place in fact

probably welcome it if it came back

they’re not interested in permanent

hostility with the Ukrainian people per

se they are very sensitive to what

happens in Western Ukraine i have had

Russians tell me some in uniform this is

within the last few years that they

thought that the best solution was for

the Poles to move into Western Ukraine

because within a very short period of

time there would be a Polish Ukrainian

war and then the Russians would have

less to worry about uh because the

Ukrainians hate the Poles and Ukrainians

hate a lot of people not just Russians

all sorts of people and the Poles have

had their eye on that area they ruled it

for hundreds of years obviously but

they’ve also had bad experiences it was

ultimately the Kossac rebellions that

weakened Poland so much that it had to

ultimately vanish from the map because

it couldn’t rule itself so you know the

Russians know the history and you’re

absolutely right there is no interest in

going into Western Ukraine under any

circumstances so that the notion that

that was ever on anybody’s mind is just

nonsense in fact I think they would be

very grateful if the Poles the Slovox

the Hungarians

uh the people in Mulava and Romania

would all sit down and say “Look let’s

sort this thing out let’s come to some

sort of agreement.” And I think that

could happen ultimately but

unfortunately at the moment we’re making

that impossible you heard the

announcement from Chancellor Matz who

now says there are no restrictions on

the use of the strike weapons with a

range of 300 miles or 500 km well you

know this puts the Russians in a very

difficult position they made it clear

this is unacceptable so the question now

is how much do they put up with

before Chancellor Merittz wakes up in

the middle of the night with a missile

in his bedroom and people don’t think

that’s possible they’re wrong the

Russians have just about had it with

this German government and the Russians

do not necessarily understand how this

government could behave as it does when

the overwhelming majority of Germans

want nothing to do with this war in

Ukraine just as the overwhelming

majority of Poles want nothing to do

with it uh they’ve been waiting for

these people to change their governments

i know that for a fact they’ve said

clearly you know give these people time

they’ll put somebody else in power who

makes sense but it hasn’t happened yet

the problem is that even if you have 80

85 90% of the population against the war

with Russia if you manage to bait Russia

into firing the first shots then you you

you will have that war i mean that’s

what happened to Ukraine that’s how they

got this mass mobilization and so on

this is how the the neocon factions

managed to to get the war going in the

first place by having the other side

firing like crossing the first like big

uh uh uh

uh border right and and and and moving

in but the Europeans Colonel you know I

I listened again to one of these very

popular talk shows in Germany they still

to this date argue that oh we cannot

reward Russia with territories reward

they use the word reward still after 3

years they think it’s a reward that

Russia is winning the war um can you I I

don’t want to raise your blood pressure

but can you talk to that a little bit

where and when what would it take for

the Europeans especially the Germans for

this to sink in that this is not a

reward this is this is the the the the

bloody outcome of a bloody horrible war

the way that Berlin was not a reward in

45 well that’s right no this is a de

facto recognition of what what exists

that is not reversible at this stage or

should be frankly given Russia’s

interests i think and I have a lot of

friends in Germany and I do talk to them

as you know and they tell me there has

been a sea change in public opinion in

Germany that first of all the the

Germans are sick of all the foreigners

they have in their country not just

Muslims uh they’re also sick of the

Ukrainians who are in Germany just as

the Poles are sick of the three million

Ukrainians in their country uh a lot of

people don’t know it but this is an

interesting interesting side when the

Ukrainians in Poland were asked what

language they wanted their children to

be instructed in they all said Russian

uh so you know the the Germans are

looking at this and the average German

on the street is we’re we’re kind of fed

up and disgusted with this now what

you’re saying is that if Matt ends up

with a missile in his bedroom that the

entire German nation is going to

suddenly mobilize equip and march east

no I don’t see it first of all these

military establishments in in Europe

particularly in Western Europe are so

backward they are so complacent their

discipline is so poor it would take a

decade to recover from the current state

of of their armed forces now they can

certainly build missiles and rockets but

then again you’re just exchanging with

the Russians look at the size of Russia

look at the size of Germany that’s going

to be a short exchange i I don’t see the

Germans doing that i think the Germans

are increasingly dissatisfied with Matts

and and everybody else and the

interesting thing is that this has been

wonderful for the alternative futon you

know the the AFD has benefited

enormously from it but they’re also

continually excluded from the policy

process they’re kept out of everything

so if you look at this it’s kind of uh

national socialism in reverse you know

you’ve got this dictatorial regime in

Berlin that wants to pursue policies

that are fundamentally antithetical to

the interest of the German nation and

they remain in power and the one party

that is absolutely opposed to war with

Russia it’s opposed to

de-industrialization it’s imposed to the

destruction of the German economy and it

has recognized the futility and

stupidity of trying to build an armed

forces an armed force right now to fight

Russia

uh but they can’t get into the policym

process now will this last forever no I

don’t think so and I think what will

happen is they will eventually gain

power but in the meantime if the German

people uh have any say in anything and I

think they would in in the case of going

to war with Russia they would oppose it

especially since we’ve made it clear and

this is the other strange phenomenon you

have on the one hand Trump adopting the

Bellose language make making these

statements that have no bearing on

reality things that he rejected 120 days

ago 180 days ago he wouldn’t have said

any of them now he’s saying them

essentially repeating this sort of

neocon globalist narrative about Russia

he’s also saying he wants to get out of

Germany he wants to withdraw forces from

Germany well if you’re a German and you

say “Well the Americans the Americans

want to get out.” Do you think he’s

serious about that i I just can’t

imagine it you think he’s serious look

one of the thing in private conversation

with him in November of

2020 he made it abundantly clear that he

was deadly serious and that wasn’t the

first time he has long felt that the

Europeans should be their own first

responders president Trump is not not a

fool he understands just as Eisenhower

did in the 1950s there will be no new

Normandy invasion it’s not going to

happen we’re not coming back with

millions of troops we can’t do it the

technology of warfare has changed and if

we’re going to send anything to anybody

that’s meaningful it has to go by sea

and today any convoy that crosses the

Atlantic or the Pacific with large

quantities of troops and material is

going to be identified and ultimately

destroyed either by groundbased or air

launched precision missile strikes or by

submarines so it’s over and he knows

it’s over the Europeans are in denial

they don’t want to accept that but

they’ve got to come to terms with it hey