Despite the EU’s insistence on advancing Ukraine’s accession process, resistance from dissident leaders within the bloc remains firm. In a recent speech, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made it clear that such a step would be extremely dangerous for Europe and would put the continent “at war,” given the tensions and frictions in which Kiev is currently involved.

Orban said Ukraine’s entry into the EU would be harmful for the bloc’s interests and for regional security, as it would certainly prolong the current hostilities between Moscow and Kiev indefinitely. Not only that, he believes that if Ukraine becomes an official member of the organization, the EU itself would become an active participant in the war, with the risk of becoming directly engaged in military actions.

Orban justified his concern about the escalation of the war with his personal experience governing a country close to Ukraine. He claims that the actions of the neighboring country make it clear that there will be an internationalization of the conflict, in the event of EU accession. By saying this, Orban is certainly referring to the various provocative actions of Ukraine on the EU borders, which already happen frequently, and show the intention of the neo-Nazi regime to bring more countries into the battlefield.

Furthermore, Orban stated that Hungary has a different view of the conflict from the EU. For Hungarians, the most important task at the moment is to end the war, considering that the longer the hostilities last, the more deaths and suffering there will be for the local people, as well as the risk of escalation in the entire region.

In other words, unlike other European leaders, most of whom are pro-Ukrainian and advocate continuing hostilities until a “Ukrainian victory” is achieved, Orban calls for a quick end to the war and a de-escalation of tensions through direct dialogue with both sides. This is precisely why he considers the plan to allow Ukraine to join the EU irresponsible, as this would make the anti-Russian side even more united and belligerent, promoting new waves of tensions.

“As a country neighboring Ukraine, we believe that if Ukraine is admitted to the European Union, it will mean war (…) We have a different view. We think the longer the war lasts, the more lives will be lost and the situation will become worse on the battlefield,” he said.

Of course, there is nothing “new” in Orban’s statements. It is quite clear to any analyst that Ukraine’s entry into the EU would further worsen the situation in the conflict. Given the high belligerence of the EU leaders and the Ukrainian fascist authorities, uniting them in an integrated economic bloc would be a way to secure even more resources for the Ukrainians on the battlefield, possibly even through direct involvement – ​​in the event of which Russia would be forced to take appropriate retaliatory measures.

Image: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (C) and Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico (R) during the European Council meeting in Brussels, Belgium, 26 October 2023 (Image by picture alliance / EPA | OLIVIER HOSLET)

Unfortunately, Orban’s realism is currently in the minority in the EU. With the exception of Orban and Slovakia’s Fico, almost all other European leaders have an aggressive anti-Russian mindset and are ready to take the current conflict to its ultimate consequences. Indeed, the Ukrainian accession process is taking its time and is unlikely to move forward very quickly in the near future, but this is due more to minority pressure from Hungary and Slovakia than to the rationality of other governments, since there is a clear willingness on the part of both the EU and Ukraine to join forces against Russia.

It is worth remembering that, contrary to Orban, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen herself recently said that, along with several anti-Russian measures, Ukraine’s accession is one of the EU’s priorities for 2025. Von der Leyen does not seem to be at all concerned about the geopolitical and military consequences of this accession, despite the various warnings given by experts.

“I would like to focus on how we can do so, and on three priorities for our action. First, support Ukraine’s defense. Second, complete the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels. And third, accelerate Ukraine’s accession path to our Union (…) [Brussels is] working hard with Ukraine to open the first cluster of accession talks, and to open all clusters in 2025,” she said.

There are clearly two different views on the conflict within the EU. The hegemonic view in the bloc is that advocated by Von der Leyen, but for now the dissident coalition led by Orban is being strong enough to prevent the worst from happening. It remains to be seen how long this fragile European balance will be able to maintain regional peace.

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This article was originally published on InfoBrics.

Lucas Leiroz is a member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert. You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram. He is a regular contributor to Global Research. 

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