Introduction

First of all, I would like to grasp this opportunity to express my heartfelt condolences to our people in the eastern DRC who have been once again massacred with the advent of the invaders and Rwanda-backed negative forces of AFC/M23.

The world saw online or in testimonies how, in Goma, Bukavu and other places, innocent civilians have been killed, women raped and horrible atrocities occurring to the already impoverished population, after more than three decades of conflict and war. In fact, much genocide has occurred in the DRC and the international community did nothing to bring perpetrators to court. I condemn what happened and ask the international community that witnesses this genocide of Congolese people by Rwandan troops to now act. Justice must prevail in the eastern DRC just like elsewhere in the world.

A Congolese tribunal is to be formed and I subscribed as well to the need to have an international conference to bring together protagonists and antagonists, the belligerents, the political parties as well as the civil society around the table with regional forces of the SADC and EAC, CPGL to name but a few. An African solution to African problems should be supported by international protocols and laws, including laws protecting the intangibility of borders inherited from the Berlin conference or colonization. This measure is key to restoring peace and stability and discouraging would be expansionists from embarking on such heresy elsewhere in Africa. I truly believe that when politics/politicians fail the nation, it is important to empower/sensitize the people to liberate themselves from the pressing challenges of slavery, injustice, poverty and maladministration.

Now, to answer your question, it is a well known fact that President Donald Trump has been controversial in his policies over the years but nevertheless, the majority of Americans voted for him. The former U.S allies and foes do not know anymore whether to support his views in loyalty to what had been their agreement or publically oppose him as we have seen after the televised debate with president Zelensky of Ukraine. Whether Zelensky or Trump was right I don’t want to delve into that space, but to observe that former allies from Europe publicly supported Zelensky. They even decided to help Ukraine militarily in case of U.S refusal to allow continuity and support.

It is obvious that Trump will cut the traditional U.S-Africa ties with his America first policy as opposed to the biblical principle of “love your neighbor like yourself”. The irony of it, President Trump proclaims the Bible principles when they fit his cause but would not hesitate to literally kick out Africans and other foreign nationals from the American soil, albeit when stopped by the senate or the law. On the afternoon that he took office, he signed a 90-day suspension of all foreign development assistance, engaged in the process of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement and WTO. Moreover, Africa was going to be threatened by sanctions imposed on warring armies. In this situation, it is difficult not to doubt the unpredictability of politics in the USA. As far as Congo-Kinshasa is concerned, the agreement between President Tshisekedi and the Trump administration on minerals exploitation, agreement reputed to be a win-win one, gives hope to millions of Congolese. However, It would be preferable that such agreements involve state institutions including the parliament, to avoid mistakes that were made in previous and multiple agreements between the DRC with other countries. The government should count on the people of the DRC and involve them in shaping the way the occupied territories will be recovered. 

Talking internally among all Congolese representatives is paramount to finding possible solutions to the current crisis. Transparency, geopolitical and geostrategic inclusivity of all forces and fairness in the process of fighting this battle is what the country needs to win the war. It is time the political class be reshuffled to include fresh blood and new ideas for social cohesion, good governance and protection of territory integrity. A strong, unified and inclusive Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) would be a force to be reckoned with in the process but care should be taken not to sideline other political formations. 

It is hard to comprehend why President’s Trump advisers fail to show him time and again that Africa offers an extraordinary opportunity for the United States on account of growth in markets and consumers as the Senate Foreign Relations, Rubio, once testified. If Africa will account for one in four humans on earth by 2050, it is a bit shortsighted not to focus on Africa in terms of trade and development. If in addition, you consider the fact that the population is aging fast in the more secular western countries and in rich nations including Japan, the youth of Africa constitute a reservoir for the development of the industrialized countries, except when the mechanization/robotisation of industrial activities takes precedence over human capital. Even to that extreme, the economy will need people around to programme machines, repair and re-engineer the systems where necessary for smooth operations and success. Failure to do so will be a recipe for chaos going forward. I agree with Cory Booker when he says that the lack of focus on Africa can endanger the whole planet. In my view, it will be careless to isolate the U.S from Europe, Africa and the rest of the continents.

Why Is Africa the Future of Trade and Development?

.

.

The table above presents the diversity of minerals and other resources in Africa. Africa has 60% of diamond global reserve and 80% of coltan most of which is in the DRC.  In Africa the reactions of leaders will always wait for too long either for the traditional timidity of the African Union and its member states, with a bit of exception when it comes to South Africa on the issue of Ukraine and mainly on the Israel-Palestine war as well as the BRICS. This has not always been the case, if we look the way Africa betrayed herself keeping quiet when the Lybia of Gadaffi was attacked by the U.S helped by France leaving it a chaotic state following years of civil war and tribal conflicts. We can say that more needs to be done to strengthen the African Union and other continental institutions such as the Pan African Parliament, etc. This is not to condone dictatorship and maladministration, but to say that outside forces should not dominate over inside forces in finding solutions to African problems.

I think it is time Africa regains its common voice in order to pave the way to a more unified and stronger African Union as it was supposed to be according to the fathers of our independence and freedom, namely Knwame Krumah, Julius Nyerere and Patrice Emery Lumumba, to name but a few. An Africa at peace with herself is an Africa which can see trade and economic development flourish to benefit the majority, if not all its inhabitants, blacks, including arabs and mixed races, as well as whites. Africa will only be free when all her nations are. When people of African origin voice out their anger against an African nation in support to imperialist powers, it is a betrayal to the motherland, to say the least. I would love to see Africans teaming up in fighting poverty, unemployment/inequality and crimes by promoting entrepreneurship, networking, expertise exchanges on technology and innovative ideas in all aspects of life. African states should make SMEs to be the engines of economic growth by creating a conducive business environment and protecting them from the sometimes negative effects of trade liberalization. SMEs are often outcompeted and strangled by MNCs owing to the fact that they are usually cash-strapped.  According to Trymore Chingwaru, the protection of the SMEs could come in the form of cash incentives, factoring in the transfer of technology from MNCs to SMEs, and promotion of domestic markets through selective import tariffs. 

Seeing people of African origin to the service of so called super powerful nations is a disservice to the continent and is selfish. Africans should join other nations to forge partnerships in order to serve humanity together and in keeping with the insights gained from Nelson Mandela and other visionary leaders. United we are stronger and invincible.

As far as I am concerned, Africa Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) which is going to expire in September 2025 should be renewed as it has been the case before, otherwise it will impact so negatively to Africa, if suspended for a long time. Why would President Trump suspend such a useful plan only for his 4-year second term in office, if after him it will probably going to be reintroduced again by someone else? I think this instability or uncertainty is not helping Africa, the US and the rest of the world. This is why I believe that the economy needs consistency and stability to thrive. It took China at least three decades of consistent growth and a 10% growth in the GDP throughout to turn its economy into the world class one that we know today. Africa must learn and unlearn from the experience of the past, respectively success stories and failure, and seek to address core issues by emulating and innovating based on the experience of others.

Having said that, Africa must stand on her feet. It is time we learn to create our markets, be it domestic, regional and continental with ramifications on international trade and cooperation. What is lacking to Africa with all her resources and potential, as the youngest continent in terms of the population and the most resourceful continent on the account of minerals and natural resources, including diamond, gold, uranium, cobalt, coltan, lithium, cassiterite, copper and platinum and so forth? Africa being the first lung of the planet earth after the disaster that affected the Amazonia, especially in the equatorial forest but not only, where the bog earth allows our planet to breath in and out, thus benefiting the so called first world environmentally. Whereas they are responsible for speeding pollution of the planet earth and the effect thereof, the African equatorial forest continues to serve us all. Climate change, over heating of the planet, floods and to some extent the overflow of the lake Tanganyika water as consequential to the degradation of our climate due to careless handling of the environment, at least to some extent. This has already a devastating impact on the livelihood of the population who barely plant, fish and live in the vicinity of the lake. Just like the Nile has been known to be the gift of Egypt, the lake Tanganyika has always been the gift of many people living around it in the great lakes region.

The problem to creating a viable market is not only to have the will to do so, but to also have the power. Africa needs visionary leaders and workaholic people willing to materialize the visions and plans of development. Barriers to this, historically, have been the refusal of the WTO and the imperialists, multinational corporations with economic interests in Africa, to support Africa-led beneficiation initiatives. For example, they wouldn’t allow that mineral beneficiation takes place in the continent so easily, and when the so called third world delved into trying just that, those companies and their lobbies will veto against such a move. It will take re-organisation or better say re-engineering of the whole economic system and the consolidation of all the forces of Africa to do this successfully. Africa needs to be capacitated with electricity provision, water, internet and technology and more human capital to strive and thrive in manufacturing, innovation and economic development. Good partners of Africa will always be found from the free world to support this cause. A multi-polar initiative towards achieving this should be advocated by all going forward, and attempt to deal with reformed financial institutions as well as Pan African organizations should be promoted.

Now talking about AGOA, I can say that the diplomatic tensions between South Africa and the U.S are not helping, considering that the Republic of South Africa is one of the major beneficiaries of that programme and a meaningful economic partner in the continent for the U.S. These tensions stem from the advocacy of South Africa for the free Palestine just as the RSA tried to help in preventing the M23 from gaining terrain in the eastern DRC, when it is known that some western pro Rwanda lobbies are against that stand. The issue of constitutional land expropriation without compensation is another hot potato that the two administrations must address in finding a common ground, thus furthering cooperation on trade and development. In all the issues above, South Africa ought to do the right thing, support human rights and justice for all not only on the African soil but also abroad.

It is because of South Africa condoning what Russia, China and Iran does to some extent, and the hostility towards the policy of Israel, that many Republicans and Democrats alike tend to favour, in agreement with the President Donald Trump’s policies, the suspension of RSA from AGOA, according to Peter Fabricius. The position of South Africa is viewed as a threat to U.S foreign policy and national interests and thus violates the country’s eligibility for AGOA, he added. As far as I am concerned, I think excluding South Africa in the AGOA is a mistake as industrialized countries should bridge ties rather than cutting them off. According to Rosa Whitaker, AGOA waived duties on most commodities from Africa in order to boost it in the U.S market. This she said raised, as a result the standard of living of millions of African population since the year 2000, at a fraction of the cost of formerly given aid and in a way that did not jeopardize American jobs, albeit in the aid industry.

Arguments for De-dollarization

If African countries in their majority redirect trade as a strategy to the Asian region, either in the context of the BRICS, like do as well the tiger nations and other emerging economies, I can understand. However, this should not be perceived as the lasting solution, it doesn’t solve a lot if anything. We live in a world which calls for a multi-polar system where there will still be a place for the western nations to trade and cooperate with others. What needs to be addressed are the reforms of the Bretton Wood institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, but also reforms of WTO which risks to be controlled by pharmaceuticals to the detriment of others in conducting its mission in service to humanity. There are many other organizations including the United Nations with its UNHCR and many other global organizations that should also be reformed to improve their services to humanity.

For potential African exporters in the market, there are a myriad of challenges, first the vision, the policy formulation and implementation, the creation of wealth on the continent through public-private partnerships, entrepreneurship, manufacturing, investment in science and technology, and above all, investment in the youth. I do not think Africa can thrive on the global scale, if we are still struggling to do business within the continent for the lack of political will, vision, infrastructure, social cohesion, regional integration and capital. Resources are a potential for development but they need to be used optimally in a way that adds value and creates wealth. Minerals need to be transformed if not locally, at least in the region or on the continent to a large extent, except when it is sound and more profitable to do so outside the African continent. When wealth is created, it must be redistributed fairly to diminish the effect of social inequality and its consequences. This must become a cycle and to do that, Africa needs to invest on circular economy. The future of not only Africa but the world lies on recycling, reusing, reducing and re-engineering, owing to the fact that resources and minerals deplete over time. 

Now, I don’t think it is time to completely de-dollarise the economy neither for Africa nor for the BRICS and the rest of the world, but I think the process should start now. It is known that the current dollar-dominated economic system favours the U.S to the detriment of others. It has been so for centuries. In 2015, there were calls for South Africa to amass Yuan capital to supplement its liquidity and funding gaps but this did not materialize. Yuan had become the 6^th most used currency in trade finance, the 5^th most popular payment currency as well as the 6^th most used foreign exchange currency by then. However, that far behind the U.S dollar and to change that, it is better to be prepared as it may be another recipe for war, not only trade war, but war in the literal sense of the term. You need to overpower the strong man before taking control over what has been his.  To shake off the dollar will be the first big test in practice of wider ambition of the BRICS countries to counter-balance the global dominance of the west. Reorganization of the BRICS in trade and cooperation as an alternative to the Bretton Wood institutions seems to be one of the ways that will pave the way to the de-dollarisation of the system going forward. I think the idea of having the BRICS currency, as we have euro in Europe or as I would predict Afro for Africa, could take us a long way in starting to appreciate the replacement of the dollar in the future. I believe the U.S should be engaged in an international conference about the injustice that all endures because of dollars. Maybe the U.S can accept and participate in some concessions for peace to prevail and dollar to be progressively replaced on the global market. Since the anglo-saxon economic crisis, the world economic crisis that started in the USA and the quantitative easing policy adopted by the American banks and their European counterparts, the competitiveness of the US dollar is deemed to have been reduced.  In spite of that, It must be a careful and progressive process to change completely the dollar system. Any brutal attempt to change the currency domination of the dollar is an act of provocation and could be perceived as a call for disputes, if not war. There will be no trade and development in war, except for ammunitions and except that which benefits only the multimillionaires involved. I hereby call for an international conference to address this on continent to continent basis or in a world conference, and if need be, an engagement with the U.S directly in finding feasible alternatives should be encouraged. 

I know that sovereign countries want to do their own things but it is more responsible to use diplomacy and address the issue on gradual basis. Why does Africa not integrate even on regional basis? Why don’t we have even regional currencies to start with? These are the questions that economists must help the government officials to answer before actions could be taken. Whether the BRICS should de-dollarise tomorrow already is another question which we could discuss another day. There is substance in doing so but the terrain must be prepared and the people both on the ground and on the leadership also should be, so that all can speak with one voice. It will take both a top-down and bottom-up approaches to get it right.

New Partnership for African Development

We should not say that all Trump does is wrong or a bliss for Africa. You will be surprised how some of the policies that he defends are applauded on the continent, especially those in line with some biblical principles. There are also decisions that are regrettable as far as Africa is concerned, especially on immigration policy. The past administration that supported many wars in the world is not immune to blame. Many Africans applauded President Trump on his victory with the Republicans. Little did the people know that the president will sign many decrees against foreign nationals and international trade, and will even threaten certain nations just after his inauguration. Today, many people don’t know what to do, either to support him or not. 

I think Trump is not against intra-continental trade, if he advocates an America first policy, surely he will condone others to also do their own things. As I said before, this is a mistake, as we are called to live in a more multi-polar world where isolation is counter-productive. The Intra-continental trade, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, the famous AfCFTA, is a good project and should be upheld by all. This however must be coordinated well, and I suggest integration and cooperation starts at regional level before it goes to the entire continent. Regional organizations  have tried this in Africa but the process is very slow because of greed, discrimination and lack of visionary leadership. This also was the fate of the New Partnership for African Development, the famous NEPAD.

Integration in the east African community for example is to be questioned with the war in the eastern DRC where the Rwandan Regime of Paul Kagame and other countries of that region are involved despite being part and parcel of the same organisation. Little integration is also witnessed in the SADC region, as people to people trade and cooperation are restricted for Visa issues, xenophobic laws and the likes. With all that in mind, when will Africa as a continent going to integrate, promote trade and cooperation, investment and development in her midst? Regional integration would promote trade and development and create wealth to millions of Africans that is why I support it. Research has proven that foreign nationals contribute to economic development in Africa. A more pan African approach to dealing with the immigration issue on the continent should be promoted. It would be a catalyst to true integration within the continent.

African Continental Free Trade Area

Before talking about the U.S and Africa, let’s see the relation between Russia and Africa and to some extent China as far as trade and cooperation are concerned. Russia has helped Africa mainly in her political and some extent her military or armed struggles. Little did Russia do, albeit recently, on investment in trade and economic development. Compared to the U.S and Europe, Russia did little both before and after the cold war and is doing little even today in Africa. Nevertheless, the slavery and colonial past of Europe in Africa, the imperialist approach of the U.S and its hegemonic stand triggered African leaders to turn to Russia and to China for cooperation. What Africans are calling for is a more just and fair system in trade and development. The Bretton Wood institutions must be reformed, the UN, the UNSC, the WTO and the likes must all be reformed for a win-win relationship to kick start. Failure to do this will encourage African states to turn to alternative institutions such as the BRICS and the likes, all which also need some reforms going forward. Exports  from South Africa to the BRICS, for example,  amounted to 20 822 200 million dollars  with 17 289 474 million dollars for mineral products alone. R3.6 billion of Import by SA, 683 004 million and 1 273 196 million dollars around the year 2013.

The 15^th to 18^th century theory of mercantilism taught that countries accumulate monetary wealth by promoting the export of commodities and discouraging imports. However, the neo-Marxist opinion posits that multinational corporations exploited Africa for too long as they followed the mercantilist approach to trade.

Economic Growth Comparison 

.

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers (2016) in Isheloke (2018)

.

As shown in table above, no African country  is counted among the best for economic growth. It means Africa still needs to create wealth so that the economy can be redistributed fairly.  With 38% the U.S.A comes first on economic growth and China with 34% comes second. Africa should not blame others for her flaws. Corruption is a cancer which will decimate Africa if nothing is done to stop it. More than a decade ago, it was reported that over 50 billion dollars are lost to Africa in illicit financial flows every year. Because of corruption, money laundering, racketeering as well as issues such as maladministration and mismanagement of funds and cash equivalents, Africa knows a hemorrhage of currencies and resources like never before. Reforms need to also address the flaws in the banking sector and international trade to benefit trade investment in Africa.   

Now to revert to your question, I agree that Africa is at the cross-road, with risks and opportunities owing to the endemic instability especially in the great lakes region. In Mozambique, a SADC member country, in the Sudan and on the north east of Africa, there are either war or pocket of conflicts, the African Union and the UN seem to be overwhelmed, while the BRICS countries sit and watch.

For trade investment and development to thrive, Africa needs peace and stability but even in time of war and conflict something must be done. Peace keeping initiatives must be undertaken, assistance to the destitute is the right thing to do, some investment in social cohesion, and infrastructure where possible should be initiated. Calculated risks must be taken in investing in the people and the nations, these become opportunities for future growth of the economy in times of reconstruction. Trade and development cooperation should be the backbone of our economic endeavor going forward. I think the AfCFTA must now be reviewed and renegotiated to allow advancement on regional level and pave the way to progress on continental stage. Engagement with both the western countries and the BRICS is what Africa needs in striving to thrive and in order to promote lasting peace. Trade wars between the west and the Asian economies as well as African interests are unavoidable but it is possible through diplomacy to address these matters in order to avoid an escalation of this trade war into a real one. 

*

Click the share button below to email/forward this article. Follow us on Instagram and X and subscribe to our Telegram Channel. Feel free to repost Global Research articles with proper attribution.

Prof. Byelongo Elisée Isheloke is an independent research consultant, business analyst and turn-around strategist. He serves as a rector of UEC, Université Espoir du Congo, Associate Professor at Institut Supérieur Pédagogique and was invited as a visiting professor at Dr John Garang Memorial University of Science and Technology in South Sudan. You can engage the author through: [email protected]

Global Research is a reader-funded media. We do not accept any funding from corporations or governments. Help us stay afloat. Click the image below to make a one-time or recurring donation.

Source link