The beginning of the decline of the United States as an empire was experienced with the Vietnam War. The young men and women of North Vietnam and the Vietcong, who caused Washington to withdraw from Saigon in disgrace with nearly three million casualties, used all the possibilities and features of asymmetric warfare to defeat American fire power. The U.S. military, capable of deploying its enormous firepower from the air and sea, could not resist the faithful and determined Vietnamese people in ground war.  The American people, who were made to believe in the rhetoric of the loss of the free world through hawkish ministers and advisors such as McNamara and later Henry Kissinger, sent 60,000 young people to their deaths between 1959 and 1974 under compulsory military service under Presidents John F. Kennedy, then Lyndon Johnson, and finally Richard Nixon.

In the First and Second World Wars and Korea, the unaccountable American governments that were able to drive young men to the frontlines. They thought the same for Vietnam and the American nation was confronted with major realities at the end of the Vietnam War resulting with the loss of confidence. 

Pentagon Papers

According to the top-secret Pentagon assessment prepared in 1969 under Lyndon Johnson, American youth were sent to their deaths even though it was known that the United States could not win this war. Although this report appeared in 1971 and was shared with the public, the war continued.

Although President Nixon came to power in 1969 with the promise of peace, he continued the war under the name of Vietnamization.  Because of the jungle logistics lines used by the North Vietnamese and Vietcong they carried the war to Cambodia and Laos, causing great destruction and triggering a civil war in Cambodia. In one year, 108,000 tons of bombs were dropped on Cambodia and Laos. By 1979, three million people killed in Cambodia. Nixon and Kissinger used the Vietnam war to win Nixon’s re-election in the 1972 election with the promise of peace. Peace was achieved in 1973. This time, however, they withdrew from Vietnam entirely, leaving behind thousands of South Vietnamese who had helped the American occupation for 15 years. 

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President Kennedy meeting with Secretary of Defense McNamara, in June 1962 (Public Domain)

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Americans Shooting Each Other in Vietnam

The second reality was different. This war, especially as a result of the 1968 student riots and the increase in anti-war sentiment, caused very serious weaknesses in the American army such as indiscipline, morale collapse, distrust of the ranking soldiers, social tension and racism as well as drug habits. Most importantly, the privates who had done their compulsory military service began to kill their non-commissioned officers and officers at the frontlines by deliberately misusing their grenades or light weapons. These cases, called fragging, exceeded 900 between 1969 and 1972. The increase in such incidents was instrumental in the transition of the US military from conscription to voluntary military service (AVF) in 1973. 

Repetitive Chain of Errors

The U.S. has not learned from history and repeated its Vietnam mistakes in Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003. Similar problems were experienced in the volunteer army (AVF), although there were no draftees in these wars. For this reason, in its imperialist interventions after 2011 (including Libya), it has generally used its proxies, special military units such as Blackwater and its derivatives, whose status is questionable according to the law of armed conflict.

In short, with its experiences in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, the US no longer fights on the ground unless its geopolitical/strategic interests are of vital importance. Instead, for example, it uses Ukrainians, neo-Nazi formations or Islamic fundamentalist terrorist elements (Al Qaeda, ISIS, Al Nusra, etc.) that it has cultivated after 1980. On the other hand, it intensively uses missiles, guided missiles, warplanes and all kinds of unmanned vehicles that transfer firepower from sea, air and land. So, is victory merely achieved with the firepower of these elements? No. Without soldiers to fight in the mud, only temporary successes are achieved with fire power and proxies. They can never establish order under the name of American Peace (Pax Americana). 

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President George Bush, surrounded by leaders of the House and Senate, announces the Joint Resolution to Authorize the Use of United States Armed Forces Against Iraq, 2 October 2002. (Public Domain)

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Responding Asymmetrically to American Firepower

On the other hand, if a state can resist the firepower of the United States from the air and sea with asymmetrical measures, it eliminates that advantage of the United States. Yemen is one of the best examples in this regard.

For months, hundreds of sorties have been carried out by American and British aircraft carriers, bombers taking off from air bases in Southern Cyprus, Diego Garcia and Djibouti, and UAVs taking off from some secret CIA bases in the Gulf countries. Starting in late 2023, the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis (Ansarallah Group) began carrying out attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait in response to Israeli attacks on Gaza. These attacks have led to serious disruptions to global maritime trade. Israel’s Port of Eilat went bankrupt and many large companies began to prefer the Cape of Good Hope route instead of the Suez/Red Sea route. This has led to an increase in freight rates and disruptions in the global supply chain. While the USA was affected by this trade flow by around 4%, the degree to which European trade was affected was around 40%. In particular, the daily flow of seven million barrels of oil and 1.2 billion cubic meters of LNG passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait decreased by 60% during the peak periods of the attacks. These attacks continue despite the efforts of the United States and its allies to ensure maritime security.

On December 18, 2023, the US launched the “Prosperity Guardian” operation, aiming to provide protection to merchant ships in the region. However, these operations were insufficient to stop the Houthi attacks. The “Poseidon Archer” air operation, launched by the US and Britain on January 13, 2024, targeting Ansarallah bases and weapons-making sites in Yemen, also failed to reduce the attacks. The European Union, on the other hand, tried to contribute to maritime security by launching the “Aspides” operation on February 20, 2024. The Houthi attacks have caused serious disruptions in global maritime trade. In addition, the geopolitics of the United States, based on naval power, began to be questioned. The Houthis’ asymmetrical attacks have tarnished the reputation of the U.S. Navy and raised security concerns in the maritime industry.  Shortly after the new US President Donald Trump came to power, he launched limited airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas. These attacks targeted unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missile systems. The political goal was to secure maritime trade and deter the Houthis within a month. However, the Houthis did not deter. 

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Aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower with destroyer USS Laboon involved in Operation Prosperity Guardian together with French frigate Forbin and Italian aircraft carrier Cavour from Operation Aspides in the Red Sea, June 2024. (Public Domain)

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The CENTCOM Plan

General Michael Kurilla, Commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), initially planned a major operation that would last 8-10 months. Accordingly, the Houthi air defenses were to be destroyed first, and then destruction operations were to be carried out against the leading cadres. Thus, while the operation was carried out in Yemen for three months, ostensibly between January and April 2025, under the influence of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the very powerful Zionist lobby in the United States, Trump deployed a very large force to the Red Sea and the Middle East to intimidate Iran in the context of rising tensions with Iran over its nuclear program, and even to attack Iran with the influence of Israel in the United States. In March 2025, deployed six B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to the strategic Diego Garcia base located in the Indian Ocean. 

In addition to the USS Truman aircraft carrier in the region, the USS Eisenhower in the Pacific Ocean was also deployed to the region. To deter Iran, Patriot-THAAD defense systems and F-35 squadrons were also sent to the region. According to an analysis published in the New York Times on May 12 under the headline “Why Trump Suddenly Declares Victory over the Houthis,” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Security Advisor Michael Waltz met with CENTCOM Commander General Kurilla. He supported the plan. However, the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, has called for the resources to be saved for the Asia-Pacific fronts. The general was supported by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Vice President J.D. Vance.

The Beginning of Major Attacks

Despite the opposite views, President Trump ordered a large-scale campaign of air and naval strikes against Houthi targets on March 15, 2025. The attacks targeted radar systems, air defenses, and missile and UAV launch points. Meanwhile, on March 24, 2025, Trump’s Secretary of Defense Hegseth caused a scandal when it was revealed that he had endangered U.S. pilots by sharing operational plans for attacks in a Signal app chat. The person who founded and started this smartphone correspondence group was Waltz, the President’s National Security Advisor. Waltz had invited a journalist to the group. Waltz was very close to Netanyahu and the Zionist factions. This triggered his dismissal on May 1, 2025.

On April 17, 2025, the United States again launched a major offensive. Houthi officials reported that 80 civilians were killed in US airstrikes. These attacks specifically targeted the Ras Isa fuel port and the port of Hudaydah. By the end of April, more than 1,100 targets had been hit: command centers, air defense systems, ammunition depots and senior Houthi leaders. Although it was reported in open sources that 12 leaders of the organization were killed, the results on the ground were not good. The Houthis maintained their presence by using more tunnels and bunkers. 

On April 26-28, 2025, the USS Truman carried out airstrikes near the presidential compound in Sanaa and some strategic points.  Many civilians were killed in the attacks, but there were no strategic results. On the contrary, the U.S. was on the losing side. For example, on April 28, 2025, the aircraft carrier USS Truman dropped an F/A 18 Hornet fighter jet ($70 million each) and a tow truck into the sea during a maneuver to evade Houthi missiles. 

On April 30, 2025, the United States resumed attacks on drone manufacturing facilities with supporting British air power.

In early May 2025, the U.S. sent four B-52 Stratofortress bombers to join the B 2 heavy bombers stationed at Diego Garcia.  With this development, a total of 10 heavy bombers (6 B-2 and 4 B-52) were clustered on the island. Neither these deployments nor attacks from the sea and air stopped the Houthis.

On May 4, 2025, they launched a hypersonic ballistic missile at Ben Gurion Airport/Tel Aviv.  This attack drew attention to the weakness of Israel’s air defense systems.  Israel said it intercepted the missiles, but the strikes put a strain on its air defense systems.

On May 5, 2025, the Houthis announced that they would launch a comprehensive air blockade against Israel. They warned international airlines to stop flights to Israel. Some companies had to postpone their flights. 

The U.S. Is Backing Down

According to the same analysis published in the New York Times on May 12, 2025, Omani officials offered a good way out for Trump to US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, who held nuclear negotiations with Iran under their mediation on April 12 and April 26, 2025. Accordingly, the United States will stop the bombing. The Houthis would not target American ships in the Red Sea, but there would be no agreement to stop their attacks on ships thought to be assisting Israel. As a matter of fact, on May 5, 2025, the White House ordered CENTCOM through the Pentagon to stop the operation. Shortly after this decision, on May 6, 2025, another F/A 18 Super Hornet aircraft of USS Truman fell into the sea while conducting a hasty landing and take-off operation due to the Houthi missile threat. The pilot was unable to catch the tailhook and to take off again due to a low speed.  

On May 7, 2025, during a meeting with the new Canadian Prime Minister at the White House, Trump told the press:

“The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen say they ‘don’t want to fight anymore.’ We hit them very hard, but their stamina is high… They promised to stop attacks on ships in the Red Sea… That is why I gave the order to stop the air strikes, which have been going on for about two months. The Houthis “have surrendered, but more importantly, they will keep their promise that they will no longer target ships…That was the purpose of what we did.” 

On the same day, a White House spokesperson argued that this was “a success for American security.” The Pentagon, on the other hand, reported that the campaign was already planned in a limited way and that success was achieved through operational objectives. However, these explanations were not found satisfactory in public and military circles. On social media, the Houthis proudly spread propaganda with the hashtag “Yemen has defeated America.”

The Houthis Are Defiant

On May 9, 2025, two days after Trump’s words, the Houthis launched a hypersonic ballistic missile at Tel Aviv/Ben Gurion Airport and a drone attack on the same area. It was clear that the Houthi resistance had not been broken despite everything. These attacks were also a kind of challenge to Trump’s statements. As a result, despite the air campaign carried out in the 2-month period between March 15 and May 5, 2025, the US could not achieve air superiority, and the Houthis continued their attacks on US planes and ships. 

What Was the Truth? 

Although Trump had previously said in his public statements that “the Houthis will be completely destroyed”, interestingly as always, “We hit them very hard, but they have a lot of resilience.” Why did he back down?

According to New York Times investigative writers, the Trump administration had asked CENTCOM for measures of the success of the operation, which has been going on for three months.  In response to these requests, CENTCOM prepared statistics on ammunition spent for the campaign purposes. During this period, the U.S. Navy and Air Force spent around 2,000 valuable munitions from both ships and aircraft. This inventory was causing a serious decline in US stocks. The U.S. spent more than $1 billion in ammunition during the three-month campaign. Moreover, the USA, which lost 15 Reaper MQ 9 UCAVs ($30 million each) against the Houthis during the Biden era, lost seven more during the Trump era.

Several U.S. officials told The New York Times that after March 15, the Houthis repeatedly attacked American aircraft carriers, narrowly avoiding being shot down by Houthi air defenses, raising the possibility of American casualties. Intelligence agencies said there was a “partial weakening” of Houthi capacity, but that the group could quickly regroup. Thereupon, two alternatives came to the fore: either the operation would be extended a little longer, or a ground operation would be launched against the Houthis with the support of the Yemeni government in Aden. None of that happened. 

The Sharp Change of Course of the United States

The new U.S. administration has seen the urgency of the situation they face. Tariffs have upset foreign trade and the domestic economic situation. The most typical example is the decline in exports. While the number of containers loaded for export from American ports was 266 thousand in March 2025, this number decreased to 57 thousand in April. On May 16, 2025, the general manager of WalMart Stores, the most widespread retail giant in the USA, said that they will increase prices in all stores due to the tax increase on imports. At the time of writing, Moody’s has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from “Aaa” to “Aa1” after 108 years. Trump made the move when he saw that he was being forced to retreat into new military adventures because of Israel while dealing with tariffs and deteriorating micro and macroeconomic balances at home and abroad. The dismissal of Waltz, the agreement with the Houthis through Oman, and the progress in the negotiations on the nuclear deal with Iran are the results of this process.

Trump’s visits to Saudi Arabia and then to Qatar and the UAE before his visit to Israel last week should be seen as a continuation of this process. Because the Gulf countries expected the US to distance itself from Israel to get closer to the US and create a new environment of trust. Instead of firepower, the United States now uses diplomatic, political and economic instruments. Because Iran has seen that American firepower is not enough even against the Houthis. 

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President Donald Trump disembarks Air Force One at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, May 13, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)

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The United States Whose Missile Stocks Are Declining

Since the USA did not have tight competitors at sea, it entered a period of long-term geopolitical easing, especially after the 1990s, and missile stocks were the most affected by this.

In the last years of the Biden era (2023-2024), the United States spent a significant number of missiles on Israel’s behalf, both during the airstrikes between Iran and Israel and the war with the Houthis.  In the article titled ‘Destroying Houthi and Iranian missiles cost the US $ 1.8 billion’ by Peter Suciu in the American magazine The National Interest dated April 17, 2024, the statements made by  the US Secretary of the Navy Del Toro in Congress are noteworthy. The minister says:

“We have resisted more than 130 direct attacks on US Navy ships and merchant ships”… Over the past six months, the Navy has fired nearly $1.8 billion worth of air defense missiles to counter air threats from Iran and its proxies.”

The Wall Street Journal reported on these developments in its news on October 29, 2024, and stated that American warships spent a total of nearly 100 air defense missiles worth $1.8 billion in both the Mediterranean and Red Seas in 2024 alone. On the other hand, in accordance with the air defense doctrine, American warships fire 2 missiles at the approaching target to guarantee destruction, which increases the cost and rapidly reduces the stockpiles. According to the report, a U.S. congressional official said, “These are really expensive munitions to hit lousy Houthi targets… It takes months to replace each one and costs a lot of money.”

The US Navy is in a serious shortage of ammunition, especially Air Defense Missiles. In just 1.5 years, the money spent on air defense missiles amounts to almost $3 billion. But more difficult is the production capacity. So the Houthis are not an easy prey.

Iran, on the other hand, is not at all. For the sake of Israel, the U.S. going to war with Iran would mean ceding the Indo-Pacific space to an alliance of China and Russia. The military decline of the United States continues, even though it does not fight serious opponents on the ground. This regression is not in the technological sense. It comes out in creating soldiers to fight in the mud. It cannot close this gap with missiles and UCAVs. The Houthis are the most typical example of this. The U.S. has hidden this deficit with plenty of Hollywood propaganda and rhetoric until today. But now they must make a new judgment of the situation. Even if the U.S. engages in proxy wars, it is no longer successful. The U.S. is rapidly declining, and it seems that it will take more time to recover.

On the other hand, great powers such as Russia and China act with the confidence that they have surpassed the West in many areas of military technology (hypersonic missiles, warplanes, etc.). The New York Times’ eventful analysis did not come out in vain. The United States failed to defeat the Houthis. He could not afford a ground operation in Yemen. It’s as simple as that. 

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Ret Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, Writer, Geopolitical Expert, Theorist and creator of the Turkish Bluehomeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine. He served as the Chief of Strategy Department and then the head of Plans and Policy Division in Turkish Naval Forces Headquarters. As his combat duties, he has served as the commander of Amphibious Ships Group and Mine Fleet between 2007 and 2009. He retired in 2012. He established Hamit Naci Blue Homeland Foundation in 2021. He has published numerous books on geopolitics, maritime strategy, maritime history and maritime culture. He is also a honorary member of ATASAM.  

He is a regular contributor to Global Research.   

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