On the night of June 12, Israel decided it could wait no more. Five rounds of talks between the Trump administration and Iran were going nowhere. At least some in our government have learned lessons from how North Korea successfully got the bomb and were not about to repeat those mistakes with Iran. Iran was playing for time, following the North Korean playbook.
And for those who think Israel did this alone—don’t. America’s fingerprints are all over the planning and preparation, especially from a signals intelligence and overhead surveillance perspective. However, America’s tenuous links to the attack may help keep Americans from being directly targeted by an enraged Iran that has few good options.
Israel has, until relatively recently, been unable to guarantee military success against multiple Arab nations attacking it, as happened in the past. Today, while Israel is the strongest player in the region, that was not always so.
Image by ChatGPT.
I’m old enough to remember the Six-Day War Israel fought back in 1967, when three Arab nations were getting ready to fulfill today’s “From the River to the Sea” pronouncement. The players change, but not their goals. This is true for Israel at this very moment and for every American as we face irrational calls for the end of America’s civilization as we know it, especially the majority white power structure.
Israel has begun to be part of the Middle East ecosystem of nations with good relations with at least a dozen countries. Notably, some of those relationships involve military technology.
Iran alone is inflexibly hostile to the Jewish State and has stated its continuing intention to destroy it. Meanwhile, the U.S., European powers, and virtually all Middle East nations fear Iran having a nuclear weapon.
Open-source information states that Iran has enough fissile material to build between 9 and 15 atomic devices. Most notably, Iran has a vast program of developing missiles (ballistic and cruise) with the ability to range out to 1,800 miles (far enough to reach Europe), which is easily in range of Israel. Iran has Project Koussar, a program to create an intercontinental ballistic missile, which it clearly wants to equip with nuclear warheads. North Korea trod that path and now has a limited ability to hit North America with its new Hwasong-19 ICBM.
There is a contentious debate that has been raging for decades as to how exactly to stop nuclear proliferation. The fight between Doves and Hawks is ongoing. But, here’s the thing: twenty years ago, only China and Russia could threaten U.S. forces abroad or in the homeland. Today, North Korea has achieved the ability to strike us, albeit with a limited number of shots. America’s vulnerability could change in a big way if Iran successfully increases its most destructive missiles and potentially any nuclear weapons they can develop.
The debate in our country between those who believe we must stay out of other countries’ business and those who think that we can’t wait for a bolt out of the blue that could be all but inevitable is fractious and unresolved. However, we must be cognizant that small nuclear powers might use different tactics to achieve asymmetric success against not just Israel but even here in the homeland. Here is how that might happen:
Presently, by not overtly joining in the attack against Iran, Trump is either playing for time or believes that he can separate what happens between Iran and Israel from retaliation against U.S. interests in the region. However, Iran has repeatedly told us that it holds us responsible for Israeli actions. We should believe that to be true and join in to eliminate the threat once and for all, and then encourage regime change.
Iran predominantly practices Twelver Shia Islam, which is the official state religion. This branch of Islam emphasizes the belief in twelve divinely appointed imams, with the final imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, expected to return as the Mahdi to bring justice to the world at the end times...which Iran would like to create. Individuals believing in a divine right to rule the world is one thing. An entire country’s theocratic leadership is another.
If Iranian leadership survives, so does the threat; they’ll just hide it better. Oil is the only commodity that empowers Iran’s ruthless designs. The U.S. does not want to take Iran’s three million barrels of oil off the market from a purely market stability point of view. The world produces about 83 million barrels a day. I say, take the hit by destroying Iran’s ability to fund terror and threaten the world as a whole any longer. It will be the cheapest answer to an existential threat to civilization.
Once freed of the Ayatollahs, Iran may once again rise from the ashes and be much more like the country it was under the Shah, minus the worst excesses. There are never any perfect solutions. Standing pat rarely works out with one’s head buried in the literal sand. Haven’t we learned that lesson through paying much blood and treasure? Our history is replete with Doves getting us into wars that should have been avoided. We shouldn’t look for a fight, but when diplomacy fails, we must remember that, at times, peace is just a prelude to war.
I stand with America and Israel; our enemies must know we are invincible together.
Author, Businessman, Thinker, and Strategist. Read more about Allan, his background, and his ideas to create a better tomorrow at www.1plus1equals2.com.
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